#swfc are the bookies' second favourites for relegation behind only Wycombe (oddschecker.com/football/engli…), because of our 12 points deduction (pending appeal (yeah, not really)).
How high is the mountain we have to climb in historical terms then?
@NTT20Pod asked me to have a look.
How high is the mountain we have to climb in historical terms then?
@NTT20Pod asked me to have a look.
Below are the teams that just survived (21st) and were the final team relegated (22nd) in the last 22 seasons of the Championship.
The difference between teams in 21st is a lot narrower than for teams in 22nd:
Half the teams in 21st won between 48 and 50 points.
The difference between teams in 21st is a lot narrower than for teams in 22nd:
Half the teams in 21st won between 48 and 50 points.
Half the teams in 22nd won between 42 and 49 points.
Vindication for the old rule of thumb for 50 points as the target for survival in the Championship.
That makes the target for survival for Wednesday 62 points.
62 points would typically see a club finish exactly midtable.
Vindication for the old rule of thumb for 50 points as the target for survival in the Championship.
That makes the target for survival for Wednesday 62 points.
62 points would typically see a club finish exactly midtable.
Several of our new signings have mentioned "promotion" as a target to aim for.
In half of the 22 seasons the team in 6th finished with 73-75 points.
"Promotion", then, would require 85-87 points before the deduction - enough for automatic promotion in about 1 of 4 seasons.
In half of the 22 seasons the team in 6th finished with 73-75 points.
"Promotion", then, would require 85-87 points before the deduction - enough for automatic promotion in about 1 of 4 seasons.
Since the adoption of 3 points for a win in 1981, we've had 20 seasons in the second tier.
Only once - when Wilkinson took us up in 1984 - have we hit the highs of 85-87 points (88).
Even in the dominant 1990-91 season we "only" won 82 points.
That indicates the scale of task.
Only once - when Wilkinson took us up in 1984 - have we hit the highs of 85-87 points (88).
Even in the dominant 1990-91 season we "only" won 82 points.
That indicates the scale of task.
In 8 of those 20 seasons we've managed 62 points or more in the second tier (3 of those being in the period 1981-1984).
fchd.info/SHEFFIEW.HTM
If for every three matches this season we win, draw and lose one each we would be just about safe.
fchd.info/SHEFFIEW.HTM
If for every three matches this season we win, draw and lose one each we would be just about safe.
A working paper, with data up to 2008/09, looked at the impact of points deductions (curve.coventry.ac.uk/open/file/9c59…).
It found that points deductions of 10 points or more relegated the club in question half the time:
It found that points deductions of 10 points or more relegated the club in question half the time:
@threadreaderapp unroll
