Thread by @SRuhle

It’s night 2 of #RNC2020 and we’ve got some fact-checking to do.

Here’s a thread breaking down Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow’s speech from this evening 👇

Kudlow: “I helped the team craft Donald Trump’s economic plan during the campaign. It was a roaring success. Inheriting a stagnant economy on the front end of recession...”

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Fact check: Trump inherited an economy that was on its way to one of the longest expansions that only ended with the COVID recession: the numbers show that avg quarterly economic growth under Trump, 2.5%, was almost exactly what it was under Obama in the second term, 2.4%.

Kudlow: “...the program of tax cuts, historic rollback of onerous regulations that crippled small business...”

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Fact check: Yes, small businesses, especially pass-through businesses in which owners often report their earnings as personal income, saw their taxes reduced from as high as 37% to an effective rate of 29.6%, and benefitted generally from Trump's deregulation drive.

Kudlow: “... unleashing energy to become the world's number one producer, and free, fair and reciprocal trade deals to bolster manufacturing, agriculture, technology and other sectors...”

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Fact check: Trump’s trade war w/ China had already cost the U.S. economy nearly 300k jobs and an estimated 0.3% of real GDP. (@MoodysAnalytics, 2019)

In 2019, U.S. manufacturing output fell in 7 of 11 months, with an annualized 3.3% drop in Q2, the largest since Q2 of 2009.

Kudlow: “The economy was rebuilt in three years. Unemployment fell to the lowest rate of 3.5%. Blue collars, African Americans, Hispanics, women, all groups benefited enormously.”

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Fact check: This was true before the pandemic hit - the jobless rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 3.9% in September 2019, while African Americans maintained its lowest rate ever, 5.5%. BUT Minority workers have seen the highest levels of unemployment from COVID-19 crisis.

Kudlow: “Everyone was better off. A rising tide lifted all boats. Then came a once-in-100 year pandemic. It was all economic impacts, or tragic hardship and heartbreak. It came swiftly and effectively with an extraordinary rescue successfully.”

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Fact check: PPP did save 51mm jobs, but not without a lot of headaches and now PUA has run out.
Great bipartisan rescue also saved the economy.

It is true that CARES act passed, but now partisan issues are getting in the way of additional aid.

Kudlow: “Right now, our economic health is coming back with emergency spending and tax cuts. Americans are going back to work.”

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Fact check: Federal unemployment is stalled, people are at the end of their ropes. Initial jobless claims increased last week, though employment is up.

Kudlow: “There’s a housing boom, there’s an auto boom, a manufacturing boom, a consumer spending boom.”

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Fact check: True, but with some caveats. Housing boom is only for the wealthy, manufacturing is up but from a near standstill in March and April, and consumer spending  is overall projected to be -4.1% for all of 2020.

Kudlow: “Stocks are in record territory.”

Fact check: True, but several big winners are driving up the S&P 500, not reflective of the economy as a whole.

Kudlow: “A v-shaped recovery is pointing to better than 20% growth in the second half of the year.”

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Fact check: That may be possible but most analysts think the recovery will be much slower and we could still see more job loss if there's another wave this winter.

17% of fund managers expect a rapid V-shaped recovery and 37% of fund managers expect a double dip recession (BOA)

Kudlow: “Now looking ahead, more tax cuts and regulatory rollback will be in store.”

Fact check: Trump has discussed a payroll tax deferment through the election if not longer.

Kudlow: “Payroll tax cuts for higher wages, income tax cuts for the middle class.”

Fact check: Income tax cuts won't make a huge difference. For an annual income of $104K, it would be around $150/paycheck (most people make less than that)

Kudlow: “...capital gains tax cuts for investment, productivity + jobs, much more regulatory relief for small businesses.”

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Fact check: Current top capital gains are currently tased at 23.8%. Trump says he wants to lower the rate to as low as 15 %, but he did not include it in his recent executive orders for financial relief.

Mnuchin told Fox that it should be approved by Congress.

Kudlow: “Look, our economic choice is very clear. Do you want economic health, prosperity, opportunity and optimism? Or do you want to turn back to the dark days of stagnation, recession and pessimism.”

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Fact check: These "dark days" were because of the pandemic, not because of a previous administration.