…interestingly, in every scenario *grid* energy is projected to decrease.
why?
• more rooftop solar (reducing demand from grid)
• energy efficiency
• economic activity
(but including rooftop solar, total energy consumed generally rises year on year.)
…as things stand, even with #liddell coal power station closing in 2022/23, there is no technical requirement to build new dispatchable generation before 2029.
…unless, of course, coal power stations start falling over sooner than expected.
…we're on track to see *periods* where all the power in a region is met by rooftop solar.
likely to start around 2023 in SA, and 2027 in VIC.
(sooner than was expected in last year's report.)
…minimum demand across the NEM is likely to halve between 2017 and 2025.
(that'll be really painful for the less flexible coal generators. poor things!)
…if not well managed, low minimum demand could easily create a bunch of challenges, eg. instability, voltage management, frequency control, system restart.
the challenges are not trivial, but AEMO is well aware of them and is working with stakeholders to find solutions.
the report notes that rates of #coal power outages have been increasing over the past decade…
…and forecasts increasing rates of coal power outages over the coming decade.
for some reason the energy ministers recently decided to adopt a higher reliability standard (99.9994%), which may force NSW to make additional investments before by FY24.
…all-in-all, good news. ✅
the energy transition proceeds, the lights stay on.
reliability is forecast to remain excellent — even when the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine.
(and just a reminder: under all these scenarios, gas power generation is expected to decrease.)
australians🇦🇺: you're going to hear lots about ontario🇨🇦, which does have a very clean grid and cheap retail power.
but you should know 🧵
1. average age of ontario's nuclear fleet is 40 years. all government owned, but ~half privately operated.
2. the current nuclear price (as determined by the ontario energy board) from this old fleet is CAD 10.1¢/kWh which is the same as A$113/MWh.
ontario's proposed new nuclear power stations will cost much more…oeb.ca/sites/default/…
3a. a 2018 canadian gov't + industry report estimated cost of power from SMRs would have a mid-point of CAD$163/MWh, or CAD$215/MWh with a 3% cost overrun.
⚛️ why #nuclear power is a distraction for australia
if implemented, the #coalition's plan would see:
• increased gas & coal usage
• increased cost
• increased emissions
• higher chance of blackouts
read on to find out why… 🧵
firstly, let me say i have a deep interest in nuclear.
i've visited multiple nuclear plants, met with companies planning to build SMRs and nuclear VCs, taken a nuclear course at @MIT and closely watched the sector for years.
i encourage the use of nuclear where it makes sense.
some context: nuclear has had a long history of nothing in australia, including the start of construction in jervis bay (promptly cancelled by a liberal PM) and a federal ban (under a liberal PM).
important to note there are also state bans, including in NSW, VIC & QLD.
my wish for you all today is that you’re not seated at xmas dinner next to your uncle who wants to convince you that australia needs to go #nuclear. ☢️
bit if you do get cornered, you might want to remind him that… 🧵
1. about 90% of our coal power will shut down by 2035, the rest well before 2040 — due to age and economics
2. nuclear won’t be able to contribute meaningfully to our grid before 2040 — SMRs won’t be commercially available for years, and large-scale nukes take that long to build
3. AEMO, the grid operator, is very confident we can keep the lights on and keep industry humming with wind, solar and hydro, supported by storage and backed up by a small amount of gas.
…we’ll burn less fossil gas in most years than we do now