Recent Afrobarometer Round 8 Ethiopia findings on federalism and the Constitution have sparked a lot of debate on social media. Afrobarometer does not involve itself in partisan debates, but we do value feedback, and this thread offers a few clarifying points for consideration.
Afrobarometer is a pan-African,nonpartisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy,governance,and quality of life.We started in 12 African countries in 1999.Round 8 surveys (2019/21) are planned in about 35 countries
Afrobarometer's goal is to give the public a voice in policy-making by providing high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.
Where and how does Afrobarometer get its data?
A national partner in each country conducts the survey. With support from Freedom House, the Afrobarometer team in Ethiopia, led by ABCON–Research & Consulting, interviewed 2,400 adult Ethiopians in December 2019 and January 2020.
A national partner in each country conducts the survey. With support from Freedom House, the Afrobarometer team in Ethiopia, led by ABCON–Research & Consulting, interviewed 2,400 adult Ethiopians in December 2019 and January 2020.
Afrobarometer is perhaps best known for its rigorous methodological standards. We do face-to-face interviews with randomly selected respondents who as a group are representative of the country. Every adult Ethiopian had an equal chance of being selected for an interview.
For those who question whether 2,400 respondents can represent the opinions of an entire country, or who suggest that we only interview supporters of a certain ideology, we encourage you to read about our methodology here: bit.ly/32y9Rn8.
Also, watch our highly competent national partner in Ethiopia, @MTG215064, explain how the data was collected and analyzed here: .
Sample sizes of 2,400 or less are common in public opinion research all over the world. And social scientists, statisticians, and evaluators of our work have described Afrobarometer’s methods as “the gold standard” for survey research in Africa.
Starting from the national census, we randomly select a list of census enumeration areas (EAs). Within each EA, we randomly select sampling start points, and from there, we randomly select households.
Within each household, we randomly select an individual respondent (alternating between men and women to ensure gender balance). Every region is represented in proportion to its share of the national population, as are urban vs. rural areas.
Based on our scientific methods, including random selection of respondents, a sample size of 2,400 respondents can give a very good – but not perfect – indication of what all Ethiopians think. All survey research comes with a “margin of sampling error.” (1/3)
With a population the size of Ethiopia’s, the margin of sampling error for a sample with 2,400 randomly selected respondents is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a “95% confidence level.” Here’s a margin-of-error calculator from Survey Monkey: bit.ly/3hBHE4Y. (2/3)
If our sample survey, for example, shows that 40% of adult Ethiopians reject federalism, what it means is that we are 95% certain that between 38% and 42% of adults (40% +/-2 percentage points) reject federalism. (3/3)
Afrobarometer is independent and non-partisan. We don’t take sides on issues. We don’t have an opinion on federalism and the Constitution in Ethiopia. Our interest is to make sure that citizens have a chance to voice their opinions and preferences. #Ethiopia
Financial support for Afrobarometer Round 8 has been provided by Sweden via the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, Open Society Foundations, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, USAID via the U.S. Institute of Peace, and Freedom House.
