Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

What if Wakanda was the world's most powerful nation?

THREAD [& tribute to @chadwickboseman]

This question is referencing King T’Challa's address to the United Nations at the end of #BlackPanther.

In the speech, T’Challa announces that Wakanda "will no longer watch from the shadows" but "will work to be an example of how we, as brothers and sisters on this earth, should treat each other"

The @UN members aren't sure what to think since Wakanda is seen as just a poor "nation of farmers"

Of course, that's not true. Wakanda possesses "vibranium", a metal that, due to its ability to absorb, store, and release kinetic energy, allows Wakanda to develop highly advanced technology

T’Challa, through the urging of Nakia, plans for Wakanda to begin sharing this technology with the world.

In short, Wakanda is now revealed to be the wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth. But it will use that wealth and power to better humanity.

So everything is well that ends well, right? The world will be accepting of Wakanda's good will and power, right?

There are definitely reasons to say no.

@zackbeauchamp, in this excellent @voxdotcom piece applying IR theory to Black Panther, offers some reasons for doubt.

vox.com/culture/2018/2…

Unveiling this advanced technology could trigger the "Security dilemma": the existing major powers could fear the ultimate intentions of this new and powerful country.

Since most existing arms are "primitive" compared to Wakanda's, the existing major powers could go nuclear.

Or short of that, do the major powers place an embargo on the distribution of Wakanda's vibranium?

After all, despite it's new technology, Wakanda is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

The major powers have concerns over Wakanda's true intentions could be heightened by two factors:

(1) worries about the internal stability of Wakanda. After all, they did just have a revolution

(2) Racism. As @zackbeauchamp writes in the above piece "How would citizens and policymakers in the West react to news of a nonwhite country — no, a black country — quietly being the most powerful country on Earth?"

The legacy of colonialism suggests an answer of "not well"

To @zackbeauchamp's reasons for doubt, I would add a few more.

First, think about all of the commentary today over a "Rising China" and how that is unacceptable to the US

amazon.com/Destined-War-A…

Such commentary is based on a decades long increase in China's wealth.

Well, Wakanda revealing its vibranium technology would be a MASSIVELY sudden change in the balance of power.

According to Power Transition Theory such a power shift would not end well.

oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/…

More precisely, should we really expect Wakanda to be happy with its position in the international status quo?

For example, would it really be fine NOT having a permanent seat at the UN Security Council?

You could say that Wakanda faces a mismatch b/w it's power and its status (cc @marinagduque)

academic.oup.com/isq/article/62…

We know, thanks to @jrenshon, that states will fight for status. So Wakanda, not the existing major powers, could be tempted to launch a war.

press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…

Second, where would Wakanda draw the line? Would it offer ALL of its best technology?

IN other words, would it truly follow the "Spider-man principle"?

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1135146662035435520

The technology it does offer would still be beneficial to countries. And Wakanda could claim that its a "benevolent hegemon" offering "global public goods"

That would be following a "Spider-man" foreign policy.

But David Lake, in his classic @ISQ_Jrnl piece, points out how "hegemons" can also use "coercion" to bring other states in line with its preferred global policies.

That would be a "Wakanda first" foreign policy.

academic.oup.com/isq/article-ab…

Maybe all of the above skepticism is misplaced?

Perhaps virbanium is so abundant and so transformative of a technology that it actually transforms international politics

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13…

But I think the main outcome will be yet another example of what Keohane and Axelrod taught us long ago, "achieving cooperation in world politics is difficult"

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

To riff off the phrase from T'Challa's UN remarks, while "building bridges" is a better gesture than "building walls", the existing major powers will have a lot of concerns about exactly what will cross those bridges.

That could undermine the happy ending.

[END]