Some thoughts on this Morning Consult poll that everyone is losing their minds over. 1/5
morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/pos…
morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/pos…
First, the change in the race from the last poll to this one (+10 to +6) is insignificant, especially considering the design effect on the data (online non-prob polls, esp from marketplace panels, have significant non-sampling error). So you can't conclude a bounce from it alone.
Second, it's just one poll, and other data might suggest something different. You should average the data together! There hasn't been any movement yet in the USC Dornsife poll, for example, though it has yet to have a sample entirely post-RNC.
Third, let's say Trump does get a bounce, maybe even a 4 point one. Comparing it to his 2016 bounce (6 points, according to Morning Consult) obscures that the race was a lot more fluid last time. The stability in the 2020 race suggests a more short-lived change in the race.
Finally, note that Biden is still winning a majority of voters. That's important context for anyone reporting on the poll; it will be harder for Trump to win with a plurality of the vote when there isn't a significant third-party or undecided block. So everyone just chill
