There is talk of conflict in the eastern Mediterranean, but in reality Ankara enjoys creating these crises every month, whether in Libya or Syria or Iraq or now the Med. the idea that Ankara wants a conflict with Greece is false: it knows Greece is not Afrin, it only attack weak
Ankara’s goal is the Ata to try to get some compromise. It talks tonight because it got used to always getting what it wants through threats, just as it got US to leave part of Syria in October 2019, it’s drunk on power. But it knows reality of real conflict with major country
Ankara’s recent military experience is fighting Haftar using Syrian rebels and drones; bragging of fighting the Syrian regime, bombing villages in Iraq, the 2015-2016 PKK conflict in Turkey and attacking innocents like Hevrin Khalaf in 2019. It is wary of major conflict through.
Of course things could spiral out of control. But it is important to understand Ankara’s rhetoric and actions in light of the last years of endless monthly crises that Turkey creates abroad mostly to distract from issues at home since the coup attempt.
This crises-threat model of leadership will continue every month until the current regime leaves power, so it could go on for a decade or more.
