@Psynian 1/n
Not sure I align to his views.
The virus is mutating, there is evidence/suggestion that some of those might change virus behaviour. There’s a spike change (amino acid 614) that increases infectivity of virus when grown in the lab.
Not sure I align to his views.
The virus is mutating, there is evidence/suggestion that some of those might change virus behaviour. There’s a spike change (amino acid 614) that increases infectivity of virus when grown in the lab.
@Psynian 2/n
But we don’t know if this increases infectivity, disease severity or transmissibility in humans.
But we don’t know if this increases infectivity, disease severity or transmissibility in humans.
@Psynian 3/n
There’s also a deletion that removes one of the non-structural genes (ORF8), which is thought to down regulate antigen presentation.
nature.com/articles/s4157…
There’s also a deletion that removes one of the non-structural genes (ORF8), which is thought to down regulate antigen presentation.
nature.com/articles/s4157…
@Psynian 4/n
But this same deletion has also been associated with more mild disease and reduced levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines. It’s this paper that’s persuading some that the virus has become less dangerous, hence the lower ratio if hospital/ICU admissions.
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
But this same deletion has also been associated with more mild disease and reduced levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines. It’s this paper that’s persuading some that the virus has become less dangerous, hence the lower ratio if hospital/ICU admissions.
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
@Psynian 5/n
These deletion mutants keep cropping up then going extinct. They could be going extinct simply because of human intervention (infection control), and the fact it then keeps cropping up means it is advantageous.
These deletion mutants keep cropping up then going extinct. They could be going extinct simply because of human intervention (infection control), and the fact it then keeps cropping up means it is advantageous.
@Psynian 6/n
BUT, this deletion probably has opposing effects on virus fitness. Making it less dangerous might help spread, as mild infection Can go under the radar. But having ORF3 is also advantageous, especially in the early stages because of the immune evasion through HLA interference
BUT, this deletion probably has opposing effects on virus fitness. Making it less dangerous might help spread, as mild infection Can go under the radar. But having ORF3 is also advantageous, especially in the early stages because of the immune evasion through HLA interference
@Psynian 7/n
And there is still so much wild-type virus out there that I think it incredibly mis-leading to make wild claims about the virus becoming less dangerous. There’s an even simpler answer to why we aren’t seeing increases in hospital admissions as CoV cases increase...
And there is still so much wild-type virus out there that I think it incredibly mis-leading to make wild claims about the virus becoming less dangerous. There’s an even simpler answer to why we aren’t seeing increases in hospital admissions as CoV cases increase...
@Psynian 8/n
Before and during the first wave we mainly tested hospital admissions. So guess what? Nearly all positive cases needed hospital treatment (no surprise there then) and a large proportion of those (positive cases) landed up in ICU.
Before and during the first wave we mainly tested hospital admissions. So guess what? Nearly all positive cases needed hospital treatment (no surprise there then) and a large proportion of those (positive cases) landed up in ICU.
@Psynian 9/n
But now, we are testing far more mild cases and doing mire surveillance, which makes the rate of serious cases, as a proportion of the total number of cases, decline.
But now, we are testing far more mild cases and doing mire surveillance, which makes the rate of serious cases, as a proportion of the total number of cases, decline.
@Psynian 10/n
Worth keeping an eye on virus evolution, but selective pressures experienced by the virus are complex. Perfect fitness is a fine balance, and indeed may well differ between hosts (environments).
Worth keeping an eye on virus evolution, but selective pressures experienced by the virus are complex. Perfect fitness is a fine balance, and indeed may well differ between hosts (environments).
@Psynian 11/11
But understanding the real rate of serious disease is important, as that means we can make accurate assessment of disease burden, which will influence control measures we need in place...
But understanding the real rate of serious disease is important, as that means we can make accurate assessment of disease burden, which will influence control measures we need in place...
