1/n
Really pleased to hear that #nCoV2019 testing will be ramped up in the UK - it wont be easy but it will be worth it.
Heard some concerns about how well a nose/throat swab will work.
Really pleased to hear that #nCoV2019 testing will be ramped up in the UK - it wont be easy but it will be worth it.
Heard some concerns about how well a nose/throat swab will work.
2/n
But I think that those concerns can be allayed by thinking about where most of the viral replcaition is taking place in different presentations/stages of the disease.
But I think that those concerns can be allayed by thinking about where most of the viral replcaition is taking place in different presentations/stages of the disease.
3/n
In a hospital setting (where initial concerns were raised about the sensitivity of the testing and sampling), the admissions will have pneumonia so most replication will likely be happening deep in the lungs - a throat swab might not be great
In a hospital setting (where initial concerns were raised about the sensitivity of the testing and sampling), the admissions will have pneumonia so most replication will likely be happening deep in the lungs - a throat swab might not be great
4/n
But in the community, where most of the transmission is happening, the disease usually presents as a mild cold/flu-like infection, and this publicaiton (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…) looking at viral shedding in mild infection shows lots of virus being produced in the nose/throat
But in the community, where most of the transmission is happening, the disease usually presents as a mild cold/flu-like infection, and this publicaiton (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…) looking at viral shedding in mild infection shows lots of virus being produced in the nose/throat
5/n
So in the community setting detection of virus in swabs will work really well. And given that ~85% of known cases are mild and driving the outbreak this expanded testing and subsequent isolation can only be a win win
So in the community setting detection of virus in swabs will work really well. And given that ~85% of known cases are mild and driving the outbreak this expanded testing and subsequent isolation can only be a win win
6/n
You wont pick up every case. The incubation period is usually 3-5 days and virus shedding low during that period. But if you can pick up enough and prevent significant onward transmission then you cna have a major impact on the outbreak
You wont pick up every case. The incubation period is usually 3-5 days and virus shedding low during that period. But if you can pick up enough and prevent significant onward transmission then you cna have a major impact on the outbreak
7/7
I am sure there is a lot more infection out there. This is bad as the dynamics of the outbreak are much more rapid. But good, because more people are becoming immune (hopefully). We need good antibody tests to determine true infection rates but today's step is massive!
I am sure there is a lot more infection out there. This is bad as the dynamics of the outbreak are much more rapid. But good, because more people are becoming immune (hopefully). We need good antibody tests to determine true infection rates but today's step is massive!
