1/n
One if the reasons we should all do our bit is tgat here in the UK, according to this study:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30857602
There is 1 critical care (ICU/IDU) bed per 10,000 people.
One if the reasons we should all do our bit is tgat here in the UK, according to this study:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30857602
There is 1 critical care (ICU/IDU) bed per 10,000 people.
2/n
There are approximately 65M people living in the UK. None of whom will have immunity to #nCoV2019 (except the tiny fraction that have already been infected).
There are approximately 65M people living in the UK. None of whom will have immunity to #nCoV2019 (except the tiny fraction that have already been infected).
3/n
The estimates for the number of people that could be infected in the first wave of the epidemic is impossible to predict, but let’s take a conservative estimate of 30%. Thats 65M x 0.3 = 19.5M. If it was lower, say 10% then that would be 6.5M
The estimates for the number of people that could be infected in the first wave of the epidemic is impossible to predict, but let’s take a conservative estimate of 30%. Thats 65M x 0.3 = 19.5M. If it was lower, say 10% then that would be 6.5M
4/n
Outbreak figures suggest around 13% serious disease and 5% requiring ventilation:
who.int/docs/default-s….
That would mean approx. 300,000 - 1M people requiring ventilation. And that’s very conservative.
Outbreak figures suggest around 13% serious disease and 5% requiring ventilation:
who.int/docs/default-s….
That would mean approx. 300,000 - 1M people requiring ventilation. And that’s very conservative.
5/5
But we only have 6500 critical care beds.
That’s why we have to slow this thing down...
But we only have 6500 critical care beds.
That’s why we have to slow this thing down...
