Thread by @rjmarr

Twitter made me mad today. Must be time for an #RVAMayor Campaign thread!

Incumbent Mayor Stoney says "I choose Richmond." WTF does this mean? Lots of things. But it also suggests a campaign strategy

https://twitter.com/LevarStoney/status/1301286280387420163?s=20

1/

Stoney's tenure has been a roller coaster of ups and downs. Before #GeorgeFloyd, it seemed the failed #NavyHill development would be the albatross that possibly ended his career. But the #BLM protests have made his re-election prospects even trickier
2/

A lot of folks, largely conservatives and property owners, oppose protests by default. They don't understand them, & rely on media and authorities who continue to refer to "violence" and "looters" to de-legitimize any political claims that animate them
3/

These folks -- many in the surrounding counties, but not all -- blame Stoney for not "controlling the violence." He let the looters "destroy downtown" and "turn Richmond into Chicago or New York." (+ many, many other racist #DogWhistles that will make you lurv humanity)
4/

On the other hand, the city's growing YPPC (young progressive political class) feels like -- with just a wee bit of justification -- Stoney has either no will or ability to control a lawless police force that has continued to brutalize protesters

https://twitter.com/ByRobertoR/status/1301215300512370690?s=20

5/

Even Stoney's bold action to remove monuments did more for his national than local profile; questions remain about who and how he paid for it, and his political opponents are taking advantage

https://twitter.com/myVPM/status/1301259080275812353?s=20

6/

Now Stoney still got a lot of the state's Democratic Party machinery behind him - Northam endorsed him, and old-school city Dems like Dolores McQuinn and JJ Minor have his back
7/

But Northam has his own similar dynamic! Conservatives hate him for destroying the economy because he dared to ask people not to die from COVID; progressives probably recalled how disqualifying his blackface scandal should have been while his state police beat and gassed them
8/

[Endorsements are less important for voters anyway, and more signals to donors and other officials that "this guy is still legit" - you want the $$ to keep flowing, and Stoney at least has that going for him
9/

McQuinn and Minor have seen their power ebb as YPPC take more control of Dem orgs. How many districts can the old school Dem machine deliver? For example, 8th is all about #RVACouncil Reva and state Sen #Jomo, who would prefer to eat Stoney's entrails than deliver him votes 10/

[A reminder that thanks to RVA's racist past, candidates must win majority of votes in 5 of city's 9 council districts to avoid a runoff for Mayor. It makes election predictions fun for the whole fam]
11/

My guess is that Stoney figures his best bet is incumbency + name recognition + state/natl Dem $$ + a few challengers, so lay low and try to split the difference (or play both sides against the middle or whatever). "I choose Richmond" instead of taking a side. On anything.
12/

It may work! We are entering an unprecedented election season, with a pandemic quarantine and the trauma of policing protests affecting outcomes in unpredictable ways. I can think of worse strategies than incumbency & $$.
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Can't end this thread without a reminder to vote, you big sillies! You can vote by mail if you have to, as I write in this week's @StyleWeekly .
14/End
styleweekly.com/richmond/opini…

sorry that should say plurality, not majority. Please send complaints to my editor library.municode.com/va/richmond/co…