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Core unemployment rose in August to 5.8%, just shy of its June high.

Core unemployment focuses on the permanently unemployment and marginally attached, removing temporary unemployment.

1/
Core unemployment has remained stubbornly high even though the headline rate plunged. More unemployment is shifting from temporary to permanent.

The number of permanently unemployed jumped 19% between July and August.

2/
For the first time since March, less than half of unemployment is temporary. Temp share of unemployment:

Feb: 14%
Mar: 26%
Apr: 78%
May: 73%
Jun: 60%
Jul: 56%
Aug: 45%

3/
Fuller explanation of core unemployment in @UpshotNYT nytimes.com/2020/06/15/ups…

4/end
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More from @JedKolko see all

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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Job postings are 25% below last year's trend, as of July 3. New weekly update from @indeed.

Postings have gradually improved from the May 1 low of -39%, but aren't even halfway back up from the bottom.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

1/
Job postings for lower-wage jobs have rebounded, while higher-wage jobs have struggled. Lower-wage hiring might respond more quickly to shifts in demand, while higher-wage hiring is more frozen by longer-term uncertainty.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

2/
Retail and driving job postings are back around last year's trend.

But arts & entertainment and hospitality & tourism jobs are still down by half.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

3/
Read 6 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Core unemployment jumped in June to 5.9% from 5.0% in May. It's rising at an accelerating rate.

Core unemployment removes temporary layoffs and adds the marginally attached.
While the headline rate fell in June thanks to fewer temporary layoffs, the core unemployment rate is climbing.

That's the chronic pain that will follow this acute crisis.
For more on the core unemployment rate: nytimes.com/2020/06/15/ups…
Read 4 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
The June COVID19 surge is much more widespread than the April spike. It is not concentrated in a few counties or hotspots.

More people live in counties where cases per capita are high and rising today than at any point in the pandemic. Image
The new-case rate for the median county is at a high -- well above the April level.

In April, new cases were more highly concentrated in New York and a few other hotspots, raising the national average more than the median county rate. But the current surge is more widespread. Image
There might be some comfort if a given number of new cases is more widely spread -- if that means the cases are less likely to overwhelm a local health care system.

But if local transmission is rapid, then surges in many places is a lot worse than surges in fewer places.
Read 3 tweets

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