Thread by @TUmarov

1/9 🇨🇳🇧🇾 In Belarus, China is neither at odds with Russia nor wedded to Alexander Lukashenko. As unrest spreads following last month’s presidential election, there is little reason to expect China to step in to rescue the embattled president. Here's why:
carnegie.ru/commentary/826…

2/9 Belarus’s cooperation with China has always been informed by its relations with Russia and the West. Hence the original impetus for Minsk’s pursuit of a closer Sino-Belarusian relationship: the 2000s’ oil wars with the Kremlin and EU sanctions.
carnegie.ru/commentary/826…

3/9 Although China’s role in the Belarusian economy has gradually increased since the 2010s, Beijing cannot, and has no intention to, seriously compete with Moscow.

4/9 China may be Belarus’s third largest trading partner, but its share of the latter’s total trade in January–June 2020 numbered just 7%, in contrast to Russia’s 48.5%. customs.gov.by/ru/2020_stat-r…

5/9 According to Belarusian Finance Ministry figures, since 2013, Belarus has attracted $3.6 billion, $10.8 billion, and $2.6 billion in loans from China, Russia, and the EBRD, respectively. minfin.gov.by/ru/public_debt…

6/9 Moscow views Beijing’s strengthening position in Eastern Europe through the prism of its confrontation w/ the West. 🇨🇳's expanding presence provides the region’s countries w/ an alternative to the EU.

7/9 Moscow and Beijing reach understandings among themselves and occasionally even coordinate their actions in Eastern Europe. Like they did in Moldova when Chinese cargo w/ the medical aid was brought to Kishinev by a Russian military plane: tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

8/9 Beijing sees no point in openly backing one side or the other in Belarus’s political crisis. Hence its adoption of the highly reliable tactic of avoiding loud statements & leaving the action to 🇷🇺, which has more instruments of influence and for which the stakes are higher.

9/9 Beijing finds working with Lukashenko easy. Should he manage to remain in power, it will continue to deepen relations with Minsk. But if he is ousted, China will search for a common language with whoever replaces him.

For more ➡️ @CarnegieRussia: carnegie.ru/commentary/826…