Thread by @TUmarov

1/13: China is gradually laying down the foundations for the construction of a Pax Sinica in Central Asia. This process is not going smoothly, Beijing’s policy has come up against constraints. My take on 🇨🇳 strategy in 🇰🇿🇺🇿🇹🇲🇰🇬🇹🇯 @CarnegieRussia

carnegie.ru/commentary/814…

2/13: China adheres to 3 principles in CA: not to interfere in the countries’ internal affairs/problems in their relations with each other; to focus on economic cooperation; to work on improving its reputation. This strategy has been extremely successful so far.

3/13: China’s interests in Central Asia are linked to the region’s 3 main specifics:

1) buffer zone between Afghanistan and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region;

2) natural resources;

3) CA has the potential to become an overland transit hub for the entire continent.

4/13: Security comes first. It’s too early, however, to speak of a Chinese military presence in the region. The soldiers reported by @gerryshih on the Tajik-Afghan border were representatives of the 🇨🇳 Armed Police Force, an internal paramilitary force: washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…

5/13: China’s role in ensuring CA’s security is not limited to attempts to establish military sites. Military diplomacy is flourishing: PLA conducts joint exercises w/ CA armies, 🇨🇳 exports its arms, offers training courses for CA officers: ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Doc…

6/13: Central Asia is in an asymmetrically dependent trade relations w/ China. While CA accounts for 0.8% of Chinese imports and 0.9% of exports, China is the destination for about 22% of all Central Asian exports, and the source of 37% of their imports.

7/13: Chinese investments are also rising. It wouldn’t be entirely accurate to link that growth to #BRI alone. There was interest in energy and adjacent sectors of the economy before it was launched. Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 has also seen a spike in investment after the transition of power.

8/13: CA’s debt is growing too. The countries most at risk are
- Kyrgyzstan: 45% of external borrowing ($1.7 bln);
- Tajikistan: 52% ($1.2 billion).

Their debts to China are greater than 20% of their GDP. The situation is better for others: 🇹🇲16.9%, 🇺🇿 16%, 🇰🇿 6.5%.

9/13: China’s growing influence on CA’s economy, which has raised concern among the public and elites, has combined with corrupt practices and the incidence of unsuccessful projects involving the Chinese to lead to an outburst of anti-Chinese sentiment: carnegie.ru/commentary/802…

10/13: That's why China works hard to create the right image for itself: there were a total of 722 official visits by 🇨🇳 government representatives to & from Central Asia; 🇨🇳 experts such as Justin Yifu Lin have been recruited as government advisors: nse.pku.edu.cn/sylm/xwsd/4962…

11/13: But China's efforts were threatened to derail by its policy in Xinjiang. More or less religious part of society in Central Asia fears that Chinese methods of battling extremism will spread to their territory. That has caused the most damage to China's reputation.

12/13: At the same time, the secular population is frightened by China's Big Brother. The authorities of the CA nations make no secret of the fact that they are interested in the Chinese model for a XXI-century technocratic autocracy: huawei.com/en/press-event…

13/13: For more visit @CarnegieRussia:
carnegie.ru/commentary/814…

To learn more about China's growing role in Eurasia visit the page of the special project supported by @foreignoffice here: carnegie.ru/specialproject…