Thread by @gbrumfiel

HI EVERYBODY! Over the past few days, I've been thinking a lot about this mysterious airstrip in China.

This is the place where @planet4589 @Marco_Langbroek @DutchSpace and others think China's new space plane landed on 6 Sept... (photo 8 Sep via @planetlabs).

Let's talk!

First off, if you're in need of big picture view, check out this story featuring @brianweeden and @planet4589, which gives a nice summary of where things stand (an audio version also be on @npratc tonight!).

Now that you're caught up, let's GET TO IT!

npr.org/2020/09/09/911…

The airstrip literally appeared out of nowhere in 2016. It's on the edge of an old Chinese nuclear test site called Lop Nur (sometimes Lop Nor). And it's unusual for a couple of reasons....

planet.com/stories/lop-no…

First #OhMyGoshThatsALongRunway! I clocked it on Google Earth at 5 kilometers (3.1 miles).

This raises the question of whether they do a road race and if so, could I could get a T-shirt that says “I burned it up at the Lop Nur 5k nuclear fun run....”

Seriously though, even the massive PLAAF base at Dingxin has a runway that’s only 4,000 meters long. And you know what else Dingxin has?

TAXIWAYS! Aircraft parked on the apron! Tire marks on the runway itself.

All completely missing form the runway at Lop Nur.

So is there a runway that DOES look like Lop Nur anywhere in the world? Well yes, actually I happened to find one… in Florida.

That is of course the Shuttle Landing Facility on Merritt Island. The runway is 4,500 m long. Notice there’s no taxiway! No other aircraft on the apron! Seems similar right? Also similar, each airstrip has one massive hanger. The SLF hangar is bigger than the one at Lop Nur.

Does it look like anywhere else? Well funny you should mention Site 251 at the Baikonur Cosmodrome. Because check it out! There’s a 4,500m runway there too, where the USSR landed the Buran (Soviet Space Shuttle). It’s lined up almost exactly the same 6/24 as Lop Nur 5/23…

So the airstrip is a reasonable match to the 2 other facilities on earth that lands space planes. What else can we say about it? Well, as @planet4589 has pointed out that the Lop Nur runway runs right under the orbital track of the Chinese space plane.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1302486141090885632?s=20

Given its orbit, it would have passed over the site at around 10:00AM local (2:00 UTC). @planetlabs happened to snap a photo at 10:11 AM that seems to show vehicles and maybe the plane itself on the runway, 2km from the threshold. (labels by @alykat)

@Dutchspace also made a cool movie showing these pixels aren’t just dust on the lens.

https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1302638942433443849?s=20

So what did land? 🤷

But we do know a few things: It was small enough to fit on top of a Long March 2F. And it needed a runway to come down. That makes people think of the USAF's X-37b (aka. adorable baby space shuttle).

So here's the timeline as I have it:

2010 USAF starts flying classified X-37b missions.
2011 Chinese media start talking about space planes.
2016 GIANT RUNWAY gets built
2020 Something takes off and lands

spacenews.com/experts%E2%80%…

But why? Again 🤷🤷

@brianweeden speculates it could be a good test bed for new space sensors.

@planet4589 says it might have SOME applications for hypersonic weapons development.

Or maybe they're doing it just because the U.S. has one.

Back to the airstrip. @planetlabs got their SkySat in there to grab a few hi-res images on 8 September. Not a lot to see after the party. The motor pool and main staging area (I think those are modular trailers?) has been busy...

There’s also this vehicle on the apron at one end of the runway. I’d love any thoughts on what that thing is (@wslafoy, you know Chinese trucks, right?)...

Beyond that, not a lot of clues. But I keep coming back to this 5,000 meter runway. Xinhua’s statement said the new spacecraft “is expected to offer convenient and low-cost round trip transport for the peaceful use of the space.”

Is this big runway part of big plans to come?

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.