Why did the CDC change guidance on who to test? Read the Cohen-Kessel paper on false positive rate (FPR). They reviewed real-world data on RT-PCR tests for RNA viruses since 2004 & estimated 2.3% FPR. (1/6)

That means the specificity is 97.7%, not the fanciful 100% reported by labs (Table S1). Using 99% sensitivity & 97.7% specificity, then using the daily %+ tests to estimate the COVID-19 prevalence of the test population, it's possible to estimate... (2/6)
the number of + tests that were returned for uninfected people (i.e., false positives). Since 2/29, the US has 6.1M +tests, but 1.7M (28%) are likely false+. Also 45K of 77M (0.059%) false- tests (- test returned for infected people). (3/6)
The problem is, as we increase testing and test more asymptomatic people, the chances of a false positive increases because the disease prevalence is decreasing. (4/6)
The last 30 days average 6.0% +tests so estimated prevalence and false+ average 3.8% and 38%, respectively. For the last 14 days, the numbers are 4.3%, 3.3%, and 42%... that's 222K people whose lives are suspended for 2 weeks for nothing. (5/6)
As early as 2/1, the WHO suspected the main driver of COVID-19 transmission was symptomatic cases. It's time to end the casedemic & focus testing on symptomatic people (or people likely to be infected) & reduce the number of false+ tests. (6/6)


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More from @LenCabrera

19 Aug
As @SteveDeaceShow says, "Assume you're being lied to." Here's a summary of Florida District 8 medical examiner reports on COVID-19 deaths from @AlachuaCounty: 39 reports, all but 5 list COVID-19 pneumonia or infection as primary cause of death, but... (1/8)
80% (31 of 39) have 4 or more co-morbidities; only 2 list <3 (81 & 82 y/o with dementia); most common: hypertension (31), heart/circulatory disease (30), diabetes (24), kidney disease (15); 17 in long term care facilities; median age was 78; 90% (35 of 39) were 65 or older (2/8)
Discontinuity between state data systems; @HealthyFla case line data (8/18) has 29 C19 deaths in @AlachuaCounty (59 in all of ME District 8); From 39 ME reports 12 can't be matched to case line data; specific examples of "COVID" deaths follow... (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
13 Aug
Wear a mask because
(1) COVID erased years of science & replaced it with "SCIENCE!" (insert @SteveDeaceShow voice)
(2) It shows you care & is cheaper than sending a card to everyone
(3) It's easier to comply with tyrannical government than to fight for liberty
1975: "The wearing of a surgical face mask had no effect upon the overall operating room environmental contamination" (2/13)
1981: "No masks were worn in one operating theatre for
6 months. There was no increase in the incidence of wound infection." (3/13)
Read 13 tweets

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