Thread by @FortiorL

A light read to start your day.
When I woke up this morning, my mind turned immediately (yep, that's how sad I am) to the events of the last few days in Brexit land, and in particular to the publication yesterday of the #InternalMarketBill.
(Part 1)

The beginnings of a Linkedin post formed in my head but when I began to write it, I discovered it was too long for a post, so it became the article below.
(Part 2)

Despite being an article, its (in my view anyway) an easy light read and something to consider as you make your way into work on your morning commute or enjoy a cup of coffee or some breakfast before starting your day.
(Part 3)

This has been another interesting week in #Brexit Street (or is it Brexitenders? 🤔 Either way, i think there will be no argument that it’s definitely a soap opera!)

So how do you ‘play’ the next episode if you’re a member of the EU negotiating team?

(Part 4)

Let’s weigh up some of the facts - and they are facts not opinions.
(Part 5)

Withdrawal Agreement and NI protocol deal reached early last October. UK PM declares this as a fantastic deal for everyone with an ‘oven-ready’ trade deal soon to follow!
(Part 6)

The UK go to the polls & the incumbent party, with the PM who negotiated this deal still at the head of the Government, winning a STONKING majority - having previously relied heavily on the DUP through a confidence & supply arrangement - to get votes through Parliament.
(Part 7)

The new WAB Act including the new (backstop removed) NI protocol is easily passed in both houses and then in both parliaments (UK & EU) and becomes law.

UK exit the EU at 11pm on the 31st of January 2020.

(Part 8)

Nothing really happens.

Covid-19 Pandemic takes central stage

Nothing really happens on Brexit for next couple of months.

(Part 9)

UK gov releases their approach/command paper on the NI protocol in May 2020 which is received with tentative approval in UK and EU - there’s an understanding on both sides that there is work to be done but time to do it.
(Part 10)

Nothing happens for next couple of months but UK Government INSIST there will be no extension to transition period.
(Part 11)

Over 6 Months AFTER UK’s exit from EU, the UK Government tender for a new Trader Support Service that will initially advise NI traders on what they need to do to trade with GB post-Brexit and then take care of their online Import and Safety & Security declarations FOC.
(Part 12)

The UK Government also release a Policy Paper outlining other procedures necessary for GB-NI trade from January 2021.
(Part 13)

Within the procedures outlined for some of the most sensitive goods, i.e. SPS goods; direct traders are instructed to use systems such as IPAFFs & EHC (Export Health Certificate) online
(Part 14)

The official links to these outlined systems bring you to systems that state they ARE NOT for Northern Ireland trade 🤷🏻 Despite this, we take it in good faith that they will be by the end of the Transition period.
(Part 15)

Nothing happens for about another month.
(Part 16)

Rumblings of new Internal Market Bill from UK gov that will UNILATERALLY disapply or modify parts of the WAB & NI Protocol - now INTERNATIONAL LAW only after painstaking negotiation, followed by debate in BOTH houses in UK before being passed in UK and EU Parliaments.
(Part 17)

The new Internal Market Bill is released and the rumours prove to be right and possibly, only the tip of the iceberg!
(Part 18)

Over 7 months AFTER the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and NI Protocol became law and LESS than 4 months before the end of the Transition period - a Transition period that could have been extended at the start of the summer but the UK gov insisted that it didn’t need to
(Part 19)

UK politicians once again start debating the FUNDAMENTALS of the agreement and the media is awash with Brexit Party politicians and sympathetic commentators (incidentally, the Brexit Party got 2% of the vote in the 2019 GE and won NO SEATS).
(Part 20)

A spokesperson for 10 Downing Street, i.e. the Prime-minister, tells us that the deal negotiated by HIM and heralded by HIM not even 12 months earlier, as being a FANTASTIC DEAL, “Never really made sense 🤔”.
(Part 21)

I’ve no doubt left out many other events, missed milestones or undelivered promises above but I think you get the picture. I also will he accused of missing context - please feel free to add some.
(Part 22)

So faced with the above FACTS, how do you approach these current trade talks (and Joint Working Group) if you are part of the EU negotiating team(s)?
(Part 23)

If this was a key business partner to your business, what would be your next steps - even if they have played an intricate part of your business from the outset;
(Part 24)

can you afford the risk of having them involved going forward or do you now accept that the relationship has broken down completely and divert your efforts elsewhere?

For me, It’s all starting to make sense now. Was this always the plan?
(Part 25 END)

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