Just a boatload of new Senate polls from AARP done by a mix of Democratic and GOP firms, showing tight races up and down the ticket.
(In Georgia's special, Loeffler is at 24%, Collins is at 20%, Warnock is at 19%, and Lieberman is at 10%)
(In Georgia's special, Loeffler is at 24%, Collins is at 20%, Warnock is at 19%, and Lieberman is at 10%)
What I take away from this is just how many nailbiters there might be on election night. This is 9 races all within 5 points! (And it doesn't include KS, SC, AK, TX, which could also be close)
For comparison, in 2018 there were 6 races decided ≤5 (FL, AZ, TX, WV, MT, NV).
For comparison, in 2018 there were 6 races decided ≤5 (FL, AZ, TX, WV, MT, NV).
In 2016, there were 5 races decided by 5 points or less (NH, PA, NV, MO, WI)
In 2014 there were 5 (VA, NC, CO, AK, NH)
In 2012 there were 4 (ND, NV, AZ, MT)
In 2010 there were 6 (IL, CO, PA, AK, WA, WI)
In 2008 there were 4 (MI, AK, OR, GA)
In 2006 there were 4 (VA, MT, MO, TN)
In 2014 there were 5 (VA, NC, CO, AK, NH)
In 2012 there were 4 (ND, NV, AZ, MT)
In 2010 there were 6 (IL, CO, PA, AK, WA, WI)
In 2008 there were 4 (MI, AK, OR, GA)
In 2006 there were 4 (VA, MT, MO, TN)
These aren't just polls of voters over 50. If you click through the links, they break out the subsamples of voters over 50, but the topline number is all likely voters. So in Montana Bullock leads voters 50+ by 1 point, but trails overall by 3 points.
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1304065439149031430
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