Thread by @DanielBShapiro

1. Think the UAE-Israel normalization deal spells the end of efforts to achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Think again. It certainly need not, as @davidmakovsky and I explain in our piece in @washingtonpost:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

2. Some Palestinians feel despondent, betrayed by the UAE, & worry other Arab states will follow the abandonment of the Arab Peace Initiative's sequence: first 2 states, then normalization. Some Israelis sound triumphalist, as if they've rendered the Palestinian issue irrelevant.

3. They are both wrong. The Palestinians are not going anywhere, & there remains no solution that can meet both sides' needs (Israel as a secure, Jewish, democratic state, & Palestinians fulfilling their right to self-determination in a viable state of their own) besides a 2SS.

4. The good news is the UAE-Israel deal could be a much-needed bridge to overcome the current impasse. Skillful diplomacy could use it as a base for renewed momentum toward two states.

5. In fact, Arab states that normalize with israel play a more active role in supporting Palestinian aspirations than those that boycott. Egypt and Jordan have each facilitated I-P diplomacy and counseled both sides against unwise steps, as Jordan did on annexation this year.

6. The UAE could play a similar role, as they already did by conditioning normalization on taking WB annexation off the table. Netanyahu's spin that it is only "suspended" is belied by Trump's promise to MBZ and Joe Biden's firm opposition to annexation.

7. Burying annexation keeps (admittedly difficult) prospects for a 2SS alive. In the shorter term, it can help restore Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation in the West Bank, which has been a stabilizing force for more than a decade but has deteriorated this year.

8. More Arab states speaking directly to Israel may be better positioned to influence its leaders & people than those that boycott. There is little evidence that blocking ties has produced Israeli concessions. Every US administration has advocated normalization as right & smart.

9. The UAE could use its deep pockets to dramatically scale-up economic assistance to help Palestinians build the institutions of their future state. Despite the current UAE-Palestinian Authority spat, it's possible to resume and increase that assistance quickly.

10. Supportive Arab states could also influence Palestinian leaders to adopt more realistic positions on certain final status issues (no right of return to pre-1967 Israel and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state) and to definitively reject violence.

11. A US administration that reestablishes support for a realistic 2SS -- not the false version of the Trump plan -- can try to marshal the UAE breakthrough to support its own diplomatic efforts, even in a period when both leaderships are not ready for a final status deal.

12. But the US can describe an end state that delivers true statehood for Palestinians alongside security for Israel, while taking significant gradual steps on the ground to convince both sides that the other side is serious.

13. That will require shelving many aspects of the Trump plan, which denies Palestinians a viable state with even a modicum of sovereignty. It also harms Israel's security with serpentine new borders and increased friction between the populations.

14. In its essence, the Trump plan creates a one-state reality in which Israel won't remain both a Jewish and a democratic state. That's bad for Israel and Palestinians, but also for US interests, as it will degrade the values-based U.S.-Israel partnership.

15. So no one should throw in the towel. As Israel is more accepted in the region, Arab states, Israel, and Palestinians -- with strong US leadership, can work to make a 2SS viable and advance toward achieving it. I fully expect that's what a Biden Admin would do. End.