Thread by @DanielBShapiro

1. This is kind of nutty, although undoubtedly, they are seriously considering releasing the plan.
axios.com/trump-israel-p…

2. That's obvious from these reports, and the recent remarks of King Abdullah of Jordan, starting to accommodate (saying he'd try to see the full half of the glass) and Benny Gantz after he met Avi Berkowitz, warning against US interference in the Israeli elections.

3. So why now? When there's no serious prospect of success, no Israeli government that can act on it, Pals will reject it out of hand? Whether before the election or during government formation, it would obviously be done to try to help Netanyahu. He's made clear he wants it.

4. And that badly misreads the Israeli political situation. No one thinks this plan will work or be relevant. It's ability to sway voters who won't vote for Netanyahu back to him because the terms are so great for Israel is dubious.

5. Even more dubious is the idea that other parties would rescue him by coming into the government over this plan.

6. Every sign remains that the plan will envision permanent Israeli control over significant swaths of Area C in the WB, surrounding isolated islands of limited Palestinian autonomy. In short, not a 2-state solution. And when the Pals reject it, Trump would greenlight annexation.

7. That may serve Trump's political interests as he seeks reelection, but it hardly serves the cause of ending the conflict. And if a Democratic president takes office a year from today, it sets up an immediate clash between Israel and that administration.

8. Hard to see how setting up that crisis serves either country's interests.

9. This plan, if presented, is going to be DOA. It will be rejected by Palestinians, Arab states, Europeans, Democrats, and some portion of Israelis. It surely won't be the starting point of the next serious US-led effort to promote an end to the conflict.

10. A smart Israeli strategist pointed out another concern. When the plan is presented and nothing happens, it will reinforce impressions of declining US relevance in the region. Both Israel and the US may well regret going through this exercise.

11. There's still a decent chance they will figure this out and keep it on the shelf. End.