Thread by @hxhassan

In ~5 years, and don’t hold any of this against me:

• Israel will have its 1st base in the Gulf
• Turkey will control a zone from northern Iraq to northern Syria
• Turkey will expand Libya presence
• Egypt & Sudan will form something along the lines of a “Nile Confederation”

A military base in the Arab side of the Persian Gulf.

https://twitter.com/bdouin1/status/1304607127542132736

The normalization with tiny countries in the Gulf may indeed seem to be non-events. But, in that bubble, I think this process will produce interesting changes in the future. Normalization will have a snowball effect that’ll drag with it both Saudi Arabia & Qatar as party to it.

If Trump wins, just to give one example, the normalization will revive the UAE *attempts* to build/relocate the main U.S. base in the Gulf & cooperation with Israel will develop much further. It’ll be a matter of time before Qatar finds it imperative to *re*-normalize with Israel

Saudi Arabia has already allowed its airspace to be used by Israel planes. Not too far in the future, it’ll develop into land movements & (secret) cooperation, directly or via the UAE. Saudi will have the same quiet relations with Israel as those previously had by the UAE/Bahrain

At this point, the Saudis can’t afford to publicly normalize with Israel, but the Bahrain deal (after initial declarations to the contrary) was a Saudi gesture. So, soon, Israel will be surrounded by friendly nations (Egypt, Jordan, the GCC, maybe Sudan) except Syria/Lebanon/Iraq