This reports that HMG could drop its threat to break international law if it gets a trade deal it likes. Optimists may hope that this is what is going on: a threat to increase leverage in negotiations. But there’s nothing optimistic about such a scenario.
thetimes.co.uk/article/limit-…
Threatening to break the law if you don’t get your way is not how civilised countries work, it is the behaviour of rogue states outside the law. And if this is what HMG is thinking then they’re not just behaving like a rogue state. It’s much worse than that from a British POV.
They’re behaving like a rogue state without a clue. Because there is zero chance that this will work. And we’re heading for the worst of all possible outcomes for everyone but especially the U.K..
It’s much worse than no trade deal. It’s worse even, than leaving without an exit deal in January would have been. Because that scenario would not have involved sanctions & counter-sanctions, and that is where we seem headed. Unless HMG does the sensible thing, or MPs force it to
It’s not too late to prevent a disaster but people really do have to act now.

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More from @kevinhorourke

19 Feb
This is disingenuous on so many levels.
The Political Declaration which HMG itself signed up to stated that "The economic partnership should through a Free Trade Agreement ensure no tariffs, fees, charges or quantitative restrictions across all sectors"
Here it is on the HMG website (para 22)
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
That is a lot more than Canada got. So even if you set aside issues such as proximity the terms and conditions will be more stringent.

If HMG is no longer asking for what it agreed was the goal in October then the question of what changed should more properly be directed at it
Read 12 tweets
28 Dec 19
No, the EU is not going to put up barriers to data exchange with the UK, or block City access to the EU. Brexit does both those things automatically. thetimes.co.uk/article/brusse…
Brexit destroys the legal framework that made such things possible in the first place. The UK, not the EU, is responsible for this and it is irritating to see the EU being accused of threatening to do things that Brexit does automatically.
Of course, it’s possible that the UK and EU will in time agree on a shared regulatory framework that will make data transfers, passporting and all the rest possible once more. Will the UK want to take that step and accept all the obligations that will go along with it? Its call.
Read 7 tweets
27 Oct 19
Remainers legitimately want a 2nd referendum, but really, is there any way to get it without an election victory for parties advocating it? Given that this Commons opposes it? And an extension has to be for something, not another tortuous process leading to yet another extension.
An election justifies the extension. It will also (by definition) help to legitimize whatever happens next. If the Tories get a majority they will presumably pass this withdrawal agreement, which is what Johnson wants to do. And if the Tories win, that'll be a legitimate outcome.
A no deal Brexit will be avoided which is the greatest danger right now. Of course it is always possible that after transition the EU and UK will revert to a WTO trading relationship but there is nothing anyone can do to rule that possibility out completely...
Read 10 tweets
17 Oct 19
Whatever the final decision of the House of Commons huge congratulations are due to negotiators on both sides. The EU’s red lines regarding the border have been maintained while allowing for continued E-W links & a consent mechanism that no nationalist could reasonably object to
And to those tempted to vote against the deal because of the political declaration: there is a clear link there between the depth of the relationship and level playing field conditions, and an acknowledgment that the depth of the relationship could evolve in the future.
So everything remains possible, depending on what UK political opinion wants. There will be an internal UN debate about this going forward and things can change over time. If you want a deeper relationship then don’t vote Tory at the next general election.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct 19
I wonder whether Irish commentators, focussed naturally enough on the possibility of a deal, and the backstop, have not been neglecting the implications for Ireland of Johnson's stated aims for Brexit.
(Johnson's aims matter since there is every likelihood that he will win the next general election and be around for a while.)
Even if a deal goes through, so we avoid an imminent no deal, Johnson's desire to avoid level playing field commitments must surely make it quite unlikely that there will be a free trade deal with the EU any time soon.
Read 10 tweets
7 Oct 19
This sounds familiar... theguardian.com/politics/live/…
You could be optimistic and view this as further evidence that the Johnson premiership is just a speeded up version of May’s. With his plan as a sort of Northern Ireland only Chequers, with the new customs partnership replaced by Max Fac. (Plus a DUP veto.)
Read 5 tweets

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