I wonder whether Irish commentators, focussed naturally enough on the possibility of a deal, and the backstop, have not been neglecting the implications for Ireland of Johnson's stated aims for Brexit.
(Johnson's aims matter since there is every likelihood that he will win the next general election and be around for a while.)
Even if a deal goes through, so we avoid an imminent no deal, Johnson's desire to avoid level playing field commitments must surely make it quite unlikely that there will be a free trade deal with the EU any time soon.
For if there is one thing that has always been central to the EU enterprise, it is precisely these level playing field conditions attaching to European trade liberalization. No-one should expect the EU to abandon its traditional views on this.
So even if there is a deal, once the transition expires (which will be soon enough) there is every likelihood that a free trade deal will not have been concluded, and that there will thus be WTO tariffs on Ireland-GB trade. No?
And the economic damage that this would cause would of course be compounded if the UK went hell for leather for a free trade deal with the US, which would price a lot of Irish food out of the UK market.
(Although it remains to be seen whether the UK political system would actually wear that. I am a bit dubious since it would be so obviously anti-conservative. Either way it will be fascinating to observe.)
The good news is that this makes the opportunity cost of no deal, and hence of sticking to Ireland's backstop guns, smaller. But the bad news is that a lot of the costs of a no deal Brexit may end up being incurred anyway (which is just another way of restating the good news).
Deal or no deal, Ireland is still going to have to urgently seek out alternative export markets and sources of import supply.
(Obviously none of the above is meant to imply that Ireland shouldn't want a deal; it absolutely should since that would sort out the border issue which is the priority. I'm just saying that there would still be big economic risks ahead.)
