SEPT. 12 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update

#COVID19Ontario #covid19canada #covid19quebec
0 deaths reported in all of Canada (population: 37,971,020).

66,764 additional tests to confirm 702 additional cases (1.05%).

1.8 active cases per 10,000 people in Canada.
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.3% of covid deaths.

This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages).

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Bear in mind that the risk of death will always rise in line with one's advancing age. Such is life.

In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
If considered as a wholly distinct and separate cause of death in Canada, Covid-19 may be the 6th leading cause of death in 2020, much like influenza and pneumonia.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Ontario has reported 2 covid deaths so far in September.

- That's an average of 0.2 deaths / day.

Ontario now reports:

- 1.9 active cases per 10,000 people

- 49 in hospital (-5)

- 18 in ICU (+4)

- 9 in ICU on a ventilator (no change)
Ontario now reports:

- 1.9 active cases per 10,000 people

- 49 in hospital (-5)

- 18 in ICU (+4)

- 9 in ICU on a ventilator (no change)
Ontario - The proportion of cases resulting in death (yellow line) is now close to zero, vs. ~15% at peak.
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario year-to-year if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is what 2020 YTD might look like in Ontario on a cumulative basis, using 2016-18 average monthly deaths as a proxy for 2020 data.
Ontario - Growth in cumulative cases is outpacing growth in cumulative deaths.

September so far:

- 880 cases per 1 death (0.11%)

- Cumulative cases up 4.2%

- Cumulative deaths up 0.1%
Ontario - Growth in cumulative tests conducted is outpacing growth in cumulative cases.

September so far:

- 159 tests conducted per 1 positive test (0.6%)

- Cumulative tests up 9.8%

- Cumulative cases up 4.2%
Québec has reported 8 covid deaths so far in September (to Sept 10th).

- That's an average of 0.8/day.

Québec now reports:

- 2.2 active cases per 10,000 people

- 123 in hospital (+4)

- 12 in ICU (no change)
Québec now reports:

- 2.2 active cases per 10,000 people

- 123 in hospital (+4)

- 12 in ICU (no change)
Québec - The proportion of cases resulting in death (yellow line) is now close to zero, vs. ~15% at peak.
Correction : 1.1 active cases per 10,000 people in Ontario.

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

2 Sep
Fall is coming.

Beware those who will pursue socially and economically destructive policies in the name of protecting your health and safety.

Beware those who will use rising cases to bring in a second lockdown (even if the first hasn't been fully lifted).

Thread:

#COVID19
We've seen that case counts don't mean much.

Deaths and hospitalizations are much better metrics.

Demand to see these numbers before believing that things are worsening.
We've also seen that the risks of covid-19 are clearly concentrated among well-defined demographic lines: age and underlying medical conditions.

Policy responses should match the risk. Universal lockdowns make no sense.
Read 19 tweets
31 Aug
Fun with Canada/Ontario/Quebec covid-19 charts⏬.

Filling a void in reporting - you can learn a lot from publicly available data presented to you in new ways.

(To be updated periodically.) ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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