A quick summary of the key findings from @imperialcollege 's latest #REACT study, issued Fri. I highlighted then the R estimate of 1.7, (and the difference with the same day's SAGE estimate). You can see this here, study 4 ran from 22/8 to 7/9 (3 from 24/7 to 11/8)
1/6
1/6
Here are the raw numbers. With 152k sampled, there were 136 positive results, enough to show clearly the increase since study 3 - tripled in fact. That's the average over that period - by the end date infectivity will have been even higher given the direction of travel. 2/6
Just part of a very busy analysis. I've highlighted some of the key points. Infectivity highest in the 18-24 group but also growing rapidly in other groups except the oldest. Experience elsewhere shows a lag in the increase in older age groups, but eventually they rise too. 3/6
The same slide shows the regional variation. All northern regions look relatively high, although the large CI's means it's not easy to differentiate between them, admissions data, where the NW has been surging ahead for the last 3 weeks. 4/6
The ethnicity analysis continues to show a marked divergence between white and non-white, even allowing for the wide CI's. We've seen this pattern consistently, and bear in mind this is simply infectivity - we also know that outcomes are worse for ethnic minorities too. 5/6
A final thought - over the 4 rounds 72% of +ve tests were asymptomatic. ie, for roughly every 1 person who had symptoms, 3 more didn't. That's why given half a chance this virus will take a grip again - and seems to be doing so given the 7.7 day doubling time. #staysafe 6/6 ENDS
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