Quick macro thoughts... Will probs be a mini thread...
S&P (or QQQ...) still undecided, could go either way; lower vol right now means insurance (i.e. long vol trades) is cheaper
Duration (30Y USTs) hanging at 1.4%, VXTLT <15, and as low as since pre-COVID (probs bullish)
Gold has been coiling up again, GVZ went below 20 briefly on Monday, it's c. 21 now, if it breaks down to mid-teens again (like July) then could be a great buying opportunity for LEAP calls (lock in the low vol)
Oil is struggling, lots of debate on supply/demand, and on USD...
If Oil stays <$40 then CPI should be softer in Q4; also note OVX is c. 40 (was >50 a few days ago), and materially higher vol than August when 32
Would recommend watching Oil closely, as the ramifications to CPI (with a lag) are important for entire Inf vs Def debate
Why are all the above asset classes a bit unsure on Monday?
Probs because the USD is hanging within its short term trading range, will it fly up, or crash down? Or just chill in 92-94 DXY range for a while?
Next move in $ will be important for most markets
Many smart people think USD [CRASH / MELT UP] (insert one!) is for sure going to happen, but the price action in short term is just 'meh'. So not a bad time to be patient too. Am not making major portfolio decisions atm, want to see how Inf vs Def, and USD narratives play out...
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Do you believe the lights will be on or off in 10 years time across N.A., Europe & APAC?
If u believe the lights will be on (as I strongly believe), & people will be heating/cooling their homes, driving their cars etc, i.e. using energy, then here's a thesis...
1/N
Energy use has correlated with human progress, and also quality of life, for hundreds of years
Every decade that passes, we do use more energy, and that's absolutely normal, and absolutely fine, assuming humans aspire to live a better life over time
2/N
For power grid, & energy distribution to work in a more anti-fragile manner, these investments form a very interesting & RELATED group (if you believe the lights will be on...)
Quick back of envelope calculation for how #ElSalvador could generate enough $BTC from mining to easily pay off interest & principle from $1B “Volcano Bond”
Vlad on the @elonmusk Clubhouse now is sinking as usual, he hasn't apologised...
AGAIN...
SMH, 101 in how not to deal with a crisis
How hard is it to say 'sorry, we let you down' as the first thing, not 'I'm the Chief Executive Officer of Robinhood'
Elon immediately cringed
But Vlad just disclosed that Robinhood has had a $3B request for cash from clearing house (I think) which they didn't have (this is new info I think), hence the raise - we all knew this, but not the number
At the heart of the $3B was the increase in VAR (as many have noted)
$3B request from the NSCC (Nat Sec Clearing Corp) and then they called the NSCC and it was reduced to $1.4B
"Today, 35 of the leading digital currency platforms and wallets have already chosen to issue Visa, including coin-based Crypto.com, BlackFi, Fold and BitPanda. These wallet relationships represent the potential for more than 50 million Visa credentials...."
"The next leading network has a fraction of that. And it goes without saying, to the extent a specific digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there's no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today."
So Powell mini-crashes stocks as markets want MOAR from him (markets never get enough do they...)
This freaked out Trump, so predictably he touts vaccines for almost immediate release (soon they will have been FDA approved in the PAST from now... 😬)
But pump didn't work, markets know it's just BS talk...
OH GOD NAZZY IS DOWN!
So Trump has to be Pelosi's best bud (he finds really hard to do), but he won't speak with Pelosi as he just can't (for some unknown reason a POTUS can't speak to another politician... OK 🤡)
2/N
So Moooonooooochin gets to be the go-between, and he actually can talk with Pelosi without one of them marching out in DISGUST AS THE OTHER SIDE IS BEING UNFAIR (cry cry cry 😢😭)
And Trump wants MOAR stimulus right now, RIGHT NOW GODDAMMIT!