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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Sep 15, 2020 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Trump says other countries "very very soon" will follow the peace deals; he harkens back to his 2017 trip to Saudi Arabia; #happeningnow Image
Netanyahu: "Those who are with us today" Netanyahu says, "unimaginable a few years ago", he hints at Trump lining up future peace deals; he speaks about the price of war and his brother who died in the Entebbe raid; those who have the wounds of war "cherish blessings of peace."
Netanyahu: "This peace will expand to include other Arab states and ultimately can end the Arab-Israeli conflict once and for all, and because of the great economic benefits...third because this is not only a peace between leaders but between peoples..."
UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan speaking now in Arabic, "better future for generations to come"

Also #Breakingnews :
As he was speaking Israeli TV showed that there were sirens in Ashkelon indicating possible rocket fire from Gaza. (see the screenshot) Image
Location of the sirens; looks like an Iranian proxy is seeking to send a message during the agreement; Image
Now Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al Zayani is speaking, saying it is an era of hope and historic step on road to genuine and lasting peace, security and prosperity across the region; "For too long the Middle East has been set back by conflict and mistrust" Image
The signing #historic #AbrahamAccords
اتفاقيات سلام
#الإمارات_رسالة_السلام Image
Israel media reporting that representatives from Sudan and Oman came to ceremony, speculation about normalization with these states.
Some regional media coverage of the agreement, Iran media ignored it but stressed Trump's comments on an Iran deal and also mentioned missile fire on Israel from Gaza ImageImageImage

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
The data behind the attack according to Israeli media, around 200 warplanes using 330 munitions against 100 targets
Compare to a recent strike on the Houthis which was 20-30 warplanes and 50 munitions
The October strike was reported to include around 100 aircraft
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
In February 2019 Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami, who was then the second-in-command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that if a war with Israel took place, then it "will result in Israel’s defeat within three days."
Salami made a lot of predictions. Image
As recently as a day ago he was talking about an "unprecedented" response and that Iran was ready for war...

Well... Image
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
In the wake of Israel's initial strikes on Iran. What ways might Iran choose to respond. Iran is in a complex situation because it had been working toward a deal with the US, but it also has been dealing with the recent IAEA censure. Iran has to weigh whether it responds in a kind of "tit-for-tat" as it did in 2024, where it launched ballistic missiles and drones; or if it escalates, or try to find another method. Here are some ways it might respond.
Diplomatically

Iran saw the overwhelming UN vote for a ceasefire in Gaza on June 12. It may think that it can play the victim now and leverage the Israeli attacks for its benefit.

Iran has invested heavily in diplomacy in recent years. It has worked on closer ties with Russia and China. It has strong ties with Pakistan and decent ties with India. It has joined economic blocs such as BRICS and the SCO. As such Iran is well positioned to use diplomacy against Israel. Iran has better ties with the Gulf than in the past and also close ties with both Turkey and Qatar, who are US allies. Iran’s foreign minister has travelled frequently in the region and was in Oslo on June 11.
Proxies

Iran has proxies in the region such as the PMU in Iraq and the Houthis. It also has the remnants of Hezbollah and groups such as PIJ in the West Bank and Gaza. The proxies are weaker but not defeated. Iran can move missiles to the PMU in Iraq. It can use them to attack US forces or the Kurdistan region. It can use the Houthis to re-ignite attacks on ships or direct attacks on Israel. The PMU have long range drones as well.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz immediately declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire State of Israel:

“Following the State of Israel's preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future. Therefore, and in accordance with his authority under the Civil Defense Law, Defense Minister Israel Katz has now signed a special order, according to which a special state of emergency will be imposed in the home front throughout the entire State of Israel.”
His office said “You must obey the instructions of the Home Front Command and the authorities and remain in the protected areas.”
IDF Spokesperson:

*Changes in Home Front Command's Defense Policy:*

“Following a situation assessment, it was decided that starting today (Friday) at 3:00 AM, an immediate change will take place in the Home Front Command's defense policy.

As part of the changes, it was decided to move all regions of the country from a full activity level to a necessary activity level.

The guidelines include: a ban on educational activities, gatherings, and workplaces, with the exception of essential businesses.

The guidelines published by the Home Front Command through official distribution channels must be continued to be followed. The full guidelines will be updated on the National Emergency Portal and the Home Front Command app.“
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 1
Why did CNN deel the need to put "peaceful" in quotes. The idea is to make it seem that there is a question as to whether it was peaceful. Image
Note that the article doesn't say anything about the man's statements. It does say "The source stressed potential mental health concerns have not yet been ruled out, which could factor into any charging decision."

They don't do reporting on the actual event, they try to make it seem as if it being "peaceful" is a controversial issue; but then do no reporting about what the suspect said.Image
The BBC also doesn't say anything about the perpetrator, but they don't put "peaceful" in quotes.

"A pro-Israeli peaceful demonstration was under way when the attack happened, police say - the group meets regularly for a walk to remember the hostages taken by Hamas" Image
Read 22 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 27
The emerging story in Gaza is that the new aid distribution is beginning. I will share some more posts and thoughts as this develops below 🧵
Images of people walking to get aid apparently
We can see here a long line of people apparently going to get the aid. These images bring up many questions and thoughts
Read 27 tweets

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