#bitcoin volatility ranges vs other assets a mini thread:

(as measured by the BVOL index = rolling 30-day annualised vol)

Dec 2017: 81-162
Sept 2020 (last 30 days, mid-Aug to mid-Sept): 27-44

Price c. $10,000 both times

Which is more of a bubble?!

1/N
Sept 2020 (last 30 days) volatility for:

Silver (VXSLV): 46-84
GDX (VXGDX): 41-52
Nasdaq (VXN): 27-48
Gold (GVZ): 20-28
Oil (OVX): 30-59

Bitcoin (BVOL): 27-44

So Silver and GDX, Nasdaq and Oil are currently more volatile

Gold is less volatile

2/N
Compared to December 2017, or indeed any time around that time, $BTC is now far less volatile in general (everything had a vol spike in March 2020), although still TOO volatile to rival gold, but give it time..

3/N
Silver and Gold Miners (GDX = proxy) are far more volatile at the moment; this should be a shock to many as most ASSUME BTC is more volatile as it used to be...

Not saying BTC can't have a vol spike (it will surely have many), but right now the numbers are the numbers!

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More from @Darky999

17 Sep
RANT:

So Powell mini-crashes stocks as markets want MOAR from him (markets never get enough do they...)

This freaked out Trump, so predictably he touts vaccines for almost immediate release (soon they will have been FDA approved in the PAST from now... 😬)

1/N

@HRGPFOREVER
But pump didn't work, markets know it's just BS talk...

OH GOD NAZZY IS DOWN!

So Trump has to be Pelosi's best bud (he finds really hard to do), but he won't speak with Pelosi as he just can't (for some unknown reason a POTUS can't speak to another politician... OK 🤡)

2/N
So Moooonooooochin gets to be the go-between, and he actually can talk with Pelosi without one of them marching out in DISGUST AS THE OTHER SIDE IS BEING UNFAIR (cry cry cry 😢😭)

And Trump wants MOAR stimulus right now, RIGHT NOW GODDAMMIT!

BIG CHECKS!!!

3/N
Read 14 tweets
15 Sep
Quick macro thoughts... Will probs be a mini thread...

S&P (or QQQ...) still undecided, could go either way; lower vol right now means insurance (i.e. long vol trades) is cheaper

Duration (30Y USTs) hanging at 1.4%, VXTLT <15, and as low as since pre-COVID (probs bullish)
Gold has been coiling up again, GVZ went below 20 briefly on Monday, it's c. 21 now, if it breaks down to mid-teens again (like July) then could be a great buying opportunity for LEAP calls (lock in the low vol)

Oil is struggling, lots of debate on supply/demand, and on USD...
If Oil stays <$40 then CPI should be softer in Q4; also note OVX is c. 40 (was >50 a few days ago), and materially higher vol than August when 32

Would recommend watching Oil closely, as the ramifications to CPI (with a lag) are important for entire Inf vs Def debate
Read 5 tweets
6 Sep
This is a must watch video from @GeorgeGammon

Interestingly I came to the exact same conclusion on Thursday last week (b4 this video came out), having spoken to REAL PEOPLE in CBs and also Commercial Banks, to understand the flows and mechanisms

1/N

TL;DR is that M2 can increase due to QE, when non-banks (e.g. pension funds, insurance co's, biz's, retail investors) sell bonds VIA the bank to the Fed (bank = intermediary); as the bank does credit the bond seller with new deposits, hence M2 does increase

2/N
If a bank sells its own bonds (from its B/S) to the Fed, there is NO increase in M2, as this is simply a shift of Reserves from the bank to the TGA (i.e. the Treasury) - both have Fed accounts, there is no M2 impact

3/N
Read 10 tweets
21 Jul
Super interesting insight from @edwardnh today in the @RealVision Daily Briefing @RaoulGMI

Here is the data from FRED that backs it up, his point is that Initial Jobless Claims are going to skyrocket due to a known Seasonal Adjustment (remember claims quoted by media = SA)

1/N
Here is the NSA / SA data for Initial Claims (*100), you can see a fairly predictable pattern for the last 5 years, the NSA:SA ratio can therefore be roughly predicted moving forwards

@DiMartinoBooth @chigrl @PriapusIQ

2/N
Let's zoom on last 1 year, if we assume the same pattern then the NSA:SA ratio will be as per the left side of the graph (this is 1 year ago, so is the same week of the year), so in July it's going to go from 110 down to 80, this is important... @EconguyRosie @AshBennington

3/N
Read 6 tweets
15 Jul
Let's talk about position sizing, I often get asked about it, and ofc there is no 'right' answer, however a few rough ideas might help you think thru the dynamics

H/T to @KeithMcCullough @RaoulGMI @apollotradingsd @HedgeyeDDale @MetreSteven @chigrl for nuggets over time!

1/N
When I was a VC @atomico I used to joke that a famous B. Franklin quote was wrong:

"...nothing is certain except death, taxes, AND cap tables have to add to 100%"

The 4th is your P.A. allocations must = 100% of liquid investable assets if one includes cash

2/N
So let's not talk about asset allocations, but instead about position sizing (v. much related)

Once you decide to make an investment, how much should you invest as a $ of your NAV?

There is no right answer, but let's look at some rough rules of thumb for Stocks & Options

3/N
Read 23 tweets
11 Jul
Was thinking about the Fed H8 form today - this is what you do on weekend if you are a kool kid these days (along with a bit of RH trading ofc...)

As far as I am aware, i've not seen this logic laid out on FinTwit, please correct me if wrong

1/N
The mic drop is that the Fed bought far fewer Treasuries in June than US banks did

[cue @'s for people who might care]

@RaoulGMI @bondstrategist @apollotradingsd @DiMartinoBooth @TetotRemi @chigrl

2/N
But 'obviously' this is incorrect? Well it is? Are you sure?

All you need to know are two data points:

1. Fed bought $80B of US Treasuries in June (source: newyorkfed.org/markets/domest…

2. Banks bought $260B of US Treasuries in June (source: federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/cu…)

3/N
Read 14 tweets

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