Thread by @EastmedC

Once upon a time #Erdogan & #Turkey was seen as a success story that had 0 problems with its neighbours and great relations with #Israel - to the extent that the pro-Israeli Jewish diaspora were very keen to host Erdogan and collaborate across many issues tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/52…

Attending the meeting were Citi's Chief Executive Officer for Europe, Middle East & Africa James C. Cowles, Partner at Caxton Associates Jeff Enslin, CEO of Lazard Ken Jacobs, President of Blackstone Hamilton E. Jones, CEO of Warburg Pincus Chip Kaye,

Henry Kissinger, president of WL Ross and Co. Wilbur Ross, Representative of the Secretary-General for the Investments of the Fund Carol Boykin, chess grandmaster Magnus Carlsen and his manager Espen Agdestein, James Rothschild of the Rothschild Family.

but a whole load of things went terribly wrong

fast fwd to now and look at what the Mossad is stating in front of UAE collaborators about the risk of Erdogans Turkey

more recently Erdogan is going for it with his ambitions. Erdogans "nuclear itch" and pivot to China is forcing US to consider Incirlik situations

To manage Erdogan Risk you have MBZ MBS in the opposing faction working with the French Greeks and Israelis and this is becoming clearer and clearer by the minute

also we can see the France-UAE relationship work into the East Med - evidently with blessing of the US Israel Abu Dhabi deal

and now the Israel Abu Dhabi US deal is formed and others are joining its definitely escalating a situation and coming to crunchtime. jpost.com/opinion/the-co… -
its becoming clearer that MBZ is fronting for an MBZ-MBS partnership to shake up the region

with everything in the open it will minus the need for very meticulous and quiet backchannel diplomacy between key interests. Now things will become apparent and things will start to click

As Cyprus Greece get closer to France UAE US Gulfies Israelis etc then you see Qatar trying to throw a spanner in the works probably on behalf of or in some coordination at least with Turkey maybe also Russia

as all this starts to happen we see a US vs Russia diplomatic push into Cyprus

Then we see Qatari Turkish team up against Arab Israeli deal .... followed by problems for Turkey in their economy (again)

aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/a… ... Given how things are working out for Trump with the Arab-Israeli deal id bet he turns the pressure on Qatar to comply or face consequences

@threadreaderapp unroll

dailysabah.com/business/energ… could it be Qatari interests causing a fuss in Mozambique to protect their LNG Markets? Why is Turkish sponsored media going against the French supporting their interests in Mozambique? - is this a Turk-qatari collaboration?

Looking back at destabilization of Egypt from the Muslim Brotherhood/Morsi situation and its effects on stunting Egypts energy role... could that all erupt again to destabilise EMGF collaboration?

question what #TOTAL doing as the French super major involved (albeit quietly) in Greece and Cypriot exploration. They havent made big moves really yet but they have it in their option to do so. Could Total change its approach and become more commercially aggressive into GR/CY?

what would Totals move be and how would that affect $NBL $CVX deal if at all? Could Total become a pro-Cy/Gr protagonist and change the model of what should be done next? what would they need to start doing now to be a gamechanger?

Exxon and ENI are in Cyprus. Eni is with Total as a partner as i understand it. Is there chance and enough of a timewindow for them three to do something gamechanging? if they dont then whats their day2 plan post CVX/NBL tie-up (if it passes) - so many variables at play...

Now how does the Libya situation led by Erdogan play into the stunting of Energy collaboration btwn the East Med partners? - everyone playing a tit-for-tat game across the region...

the libya situation can cause problems for the East Med pipeline. This leaves LNG as the workable solution through Egypt +/- Newbuild Terminal Cyprus. Once the East Med starts to work the LNG game how will Erdogan and his allies counter the collaboration?

what cards will Erdogan then play vs Israel and Egypt and ofcourse Cyprus once the LNG game gets going? - If the LNG game gets going despite Erdogans antics then what does it mean for the Erdogan/Qatar/Russian relations?

how important is stunting e med regional LNG flow to them? if Cyprus Israel Egypt get to work it out with US and others onside from the Gulf then what does that mean to Turkish Qatari Russian faction/interests? - does this all come down to protecting LNG markets for Qatar/Russia