Alistair Haimes Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020 9 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1. Cases

1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.

Source: Gov dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…
1. Cases

1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive. Again, bear in mind that the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so. Positivity currently 1.6%

Source: PHE covid surveillance report
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2. Care home outbreaks

*Critical data*. In week 37 there were 10x more outbreaks in care homes than in food outlets and restaurants; interventions targeted at the latter would be pointless.

Source: weekly PHE report as above
3. Hospital deaths and admissions

Deaths from NHS England stats: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…

Admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?are…
4. Triage

111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+

Thrown off this week by school / college kids seeking tests, but already falling back. No significant increase in 70+

digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…
5. Incidence / prevalence

Infection rate increasing in the young, but not in the elderly. Fantastic news - the faster the virus passes through the young / healthy, the sooner it will pass over the elderly / vulnerable.

Still *far* below epidemic level

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
6. Mortality

COVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
7. Miscellaneous

7.1 *Huge* spike in rhinovirus (colds) diagnoses this week, couldn't have come at a worse time for worried parents to confuse with covid symptoms, hence the strain on testing

Source: covid surveillance report
7. Miscellaneous

7.2 Contact tracing still seems to mostly take the place of positive test recipients just telling their housemates and guests they tested positive!

Source: PHE surveillance report

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More from @AlistairHaimes

Jan 8, 2021
This is Toby Young (@toadmeister)'s response to my piece in the @spectator, which he very fairly follows by a frontline account from an in-house senior doctor in London.

spectator.co.uk/article/lockdo…

I thought I'd respond briefly to the response: short thread 1/n
I am still a lockdown sceptic, and Toby sets out very well the principled objections to lockdown that I still believe too. 2/n
I still think the 1st lockdown went on too long, with harms likely to have outweighed the benefits. TikTok punting videos while people missed basic healthcare is revolting.

I don't think the 2nd lockdown was well justified: the arguments that convince me now didn't then. 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Oct 24, 2020
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks / admissions
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. ICU profile: ICNARC

#ahcveng
1. Incidence

ONS: Incidence now up to 35k per day, 0.9% overall; huge variance regionally and by age group, with young getting infected *much* faster than old (good news), and this is backed up by Zoe (KCL/CSS) data: ()

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
2. Care home outbreaks / admissions

Care home outbreaks flat; still 3% of outbreaks. But admissions from care homes rising (so size of each outbreak bigger?)

*If* our interventions work, why are admissions from care homes growing at the same pace as elsewhere? 🤔
Read 10 tweets
Oct 24, 2020
My experience of contact tracing.
---
My daughter was sent home from school to isolate Tuesday morning, following a positive test by her teacher (who had been isolating since Friday).

She rapidly developed (moderate) fever and kept falling asleep (fine now), so was tested /1
This was 2.30pm Tuesday.

Result came through 10pm Thursday; within half an hour we had phoned all contacts (piano teacher, school, houseguests, other direct contacts).

Contact tracers phoned us 17 hours later (Friday afternoon); we gave them all the same information. /2
I asked what the point of contacting people we had already contacted; they confessed "basically... not much".

Since then they have repeatedly been contacting us (in isolation) by phone and text to confirm our details, even though I've told them we're isolating. /3
Read 5 tweets
Oct 17, 2020
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. Miscellaneous: nosocomial

#ahcveng
1. Incidence

ONS shows continued increase in incidence as the seasons change, driven by areas of the country subject to enhanced lockdown restrictions.

Great news: clear divergence between incidence in the vulnerable >70 versus younger age groups.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
(Caution due on the NE/Yorks piece of that chart: doesn't tally with the Zoe incidence data, which otherwise generally ties in well with ONS).

Read 13 tweets
Oct 9, 2020
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. Miscellaneous: ICU, France & Spain, GB Dec

#ahcveng
1a. Incidence

Zoe (KCL CSS) suggests incidence is slowing after a steep rise, whereas ONS and Imperial (REACT1) show sharp recent rise.

covid.joinzoe.com/data

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
1b. Incidence

Note sharp age distinction in ONS / REACT1; if you favour the "GB Declaration" approach (see below) you would want the difference between young and old incidence and trajectory as great as possible

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Read 14 tweets
Oct 2, 2020
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital & ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. The Vallance-tracker
8. Mortality
9. Miscellaneous

#ahcveng
1a. ONS incidence

The headline is that during the most recent week (18 to 24 September) there were around 8,400 new infections per day not including those living in institutional settings, *down* from 9,600 previous week.

Still not rising in the elderly

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… ImageImageImage
1b. Other incidence

We also had the Imperial "REACT1" interim incidence report this week which also pointed to a slowdown, and the KCL Zoe app (tracking symptomatic cases) points in the same direction

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

covid.joinzoe.com/data ImageImage
Read 18 tweets

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