Thread by @coiledspringcap

#StockMarket I hope you all had a great WE. Some quick mkt thoughts as head into a new wk. Last WE I suggested a break of 50day/wk low could yield #SPX 3280ish, we reached 3292. RSI divergence was erased; next Demark Trend Factor levels: 3262 & 3200 (coincides w/ 3180 area)....

#StockMarket #SPX I also mentioned the pot'l for a midwk turnaround on Demark exhaustion signals but early wk strength negated the count & has now started over. the Naz also erased its count & now has a Demark propulsion down tgt of 10470. still looks very vulnerable....

#StockMarket #SPX did close below the important 10wk for the first time while the Naz closed below for the 2nd wk in a row = not bullish....

#stockmarket Volatility is acting strange & not rising /w the mkt sell off. complacency or foreshadowing a bounce? I vote the former. Demark has pot'l for 9 buys this wk in the $VIX (Tues pot'l) & the $VVIX (pot'l tomorrow) - not a bad time to add some protection....

#stockmarket but not all bad. The mkt tends to have a high correlation w/ the $JPY, which currently has a Demark 9 buy & also close to an equal leg Elliot Wave extreme (103.40) where buyers could show up. A sustained push here could give fuel for a rally. needs to be monitored...

#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index overlaid w/ Demark signals earlier in the wk as something I use to anticipate turns in the mkt. Demark 9 signals have had a high correlation w/ major swings in the mkt. currently 9 buy....

#stockmarket I also posted this chart earlier in the wk as another tool I use to anticipate turns in the mkt: McClellan Summation Index overlaid w/ Demarks. currently combo 13 buy is present w/ a new 13 sequential buy....

#stockmarket I've also been arguing for the last month that rotation likely happens at the expense of tech. This is clearly evident in this chart of the Equal weight #SPX vs the $SPY. a nice bounce off the lows post a 9 demark buy but now into a difficult area w/ a new 9 sell...

#StockMarket & maybe the most imp chart in the mkt today, the Fang index (this is the BBRG version & includes more companies but the picture is the same). Is this bullish or bearish? regardless how you view this, where this goes next likely determines where the mkt is headed....

#stockmarket new development in the #SPX w/ the MACD about to cross below the zero line. The Naz has already done this but the weekly Naz MACD is getting closer to crossing negative as well = not bullish....

#StockMarket but how bearish is it really? I looked closer at the #SPX & found 8x in the last 2.5 yrs. Most did not end the bull mkt BUT it must hold the 200 day. A sustained break below the 200 day led to bad things. BUT every time the 0 line crossed, very choppy action ensued.

#StockMarket Concl: corrections are very hard to make $. better to be heavy cash & trade tactically in smaller sizes. I am in 80% cash. I expect much more choppiness & likely further mkt weakness & would sell any rallies. This wk is seasonally very weak so be careful out there.