$BABA a🧵1/17

No doubt has this been one of our most frustrating positions. We have traded it well a few times and sold portions, but our core piece has been a disappointment.

Was last week the capitulation low? We think it has the markings of such. Lets discuss: $BABA 2/17

*What happened last wk?

*reported lackluster erns & are clearly ceding share to new entrants. BABA was the weakest ecommerce platform per GMV this erns season
*Negative GMV vs growth in their competitors reports is not good, esp since their marketing spend grew 14%

#stockmarket 1/8 The recent months have felt quite bad for most buy and hold portfolios, thats bc so few stocks have participated in the rally. we've talked about this numerous times. the biggest question is when will it reverse. notice this ratio chart of $SPY vs Midcaps. 2/8 Mar was the swing low, and underperformed meaningfully since. DeMark signals caught the low and now printed @ recent high. Why is this important?

#stockmarket WE update - finally saw some nastiness on Fri w/ some fairly big moves in individual stks. could this be the start of something bigger? as discussed in last WE posts, we are set up for it but will it happen? #SPX held the 20day again. 3720/3660 next lvls to watch... #stockmarket Demark propulsion up tgt still active w/ 3907 tgt but stuck on 10 count for the seq 13 sell since Jan 8th. still could post this wk as early as weds....

#StockMarket WE update. #SPX as expected we rallied to my first target lvl above 3800, derived from a measured move off the box breakout. Some consolidation is likely here or even a retracement. RSI poked above 70 for the first time since Aug... #stockmarket New Seq Demark 13 sell possibly this wk (earliest weds). Propulsion up tgt of 3907 still in view. maybe we hit the tgt while posting the new 13 sell? Reminder the propulsion lvls can act as magnets but also exhaustion lvls. Last 2 13 sells saw short +2% drawdowns...

#stockmarket amazing strength this wk in the market, but Jan giddiness over a new administration starts to run into problems mid month & trades off, historically. In previous WE updates i cited tgts btw 3800-3900 and we are here. I likely will be trimming and selling today. GL #stockmarket to further this comment. Ysty was epic, but i dont want to give a bunch back so i sold some strength and raised stops. my feeling is next week will be more tricky so plan accordingly.

#StockMarket WE update. Tough to make much sense out of the last 2 wks given all the rebalancing. Still think Jan is set up for some giveback. #SPX cluster of Demark 13 sells, new combo 13 sell, w/ risk lvl @ 3788. Prop up still active w/ 3907 tgt. maybe quick run to 3900 first? #StockMarket As I've said repeatedly, tough to be overly bearish above 3630ish & a close below the 20day has been elusive. A close below might shake things up but for now new box B/O w/ measured move to 3800+...

#stockmarket WE update - Holiday short version. $SPY shows 2 broken rising wedges but minimal damage. Nasty pierce of the 20day & support last wk but strong close & no follow thru. Resiliency matters & for now bulls in control. Currently 3 distribution days in Dec... #stockmarket A close below $364ish would shake things up a bit I suspect but elusive at this point. $SPY weekly looks quite healthy to me....

#stockmarket WE update. Last WE I mentioned I was cautiously optimistic but could see some weakness in 2H of the wk as Demark could post a Seq 13 sell on the #SPX. Friday was weak but somewhat contained. I also mentioned that Propulsion up was still active w/ 3907 tgt.... #stockmarket Momentum tgts signify trend continuation but also could represent exhaustion points. The Russell also w/ new Demark 13 sells on the weekly chart to go w/ a new round of daily sell signals....

#stockmarket WE update. Last wk I mentioned to be careful adding new money to the mkt, which was the correct call as we did see weakness. I mentioned watching the $DXY for signals as it did move off the lows. But 20day save on Fri above key lvls for #SPX is bullish for now.... #stockmarket As I've mentioned in previous updates, $ spikes are equity bearish & last wk we did see #DXY move off the lows. Whether this a minor bounce or bigger countertrend move is yet TBD. $DXY bounce from OS RSI now above 14day SMA & day 3 of price flip; needs to be watched.

#stockmarket WE update. crazy bullish euphoria is all that comes to mind. But that doesn't mean it has to end. I think we are stretched which can be resolved by time or price. >3645 tough to be overly bearish, but putting new money to work up here seems foolish.... #stockmarket #SPX correlation to USD has been strong & previous spikes this yr have seen equity dislocation. This is the most important thing to watch IMO given how lopsided this trade has become. Demark has a 13 Seq/Combo & 9 buy in place/ w/ prop down tgt of 90.15 for $DXY...

#stockmarket Last WE update I discussed dialing back on equities & despite + vaccine news the #SPX was down .77% for the wk. Risk still remains to the downside IMO, although can't be too bearish until we break the ranges. $SPY flag or lower high? ... #stockmarket marked white circles (above) are showing heavy volume distribution days since Sept is not bullish. But for now the supply is getting absorbed. The Demark chart shows Day 2 of a price flip down following the completed 9-13-9 sell, and closed <5day EMA....

#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence... #StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...

#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673.. #stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47

$YALA getting tight. $YALA whoa!

#stockmarket WE Update. Wild week as expected & I expect more fireworks, but are we close to a bottom? #SPX futures bouncing around the 1.5x Demark trendfactor lvl of 3249 (was 3250 when I started this work). day 6 of Demark buy set up.... #stockmarket $SPY also bouncing around the 1.5x TF level of 324 & closed above. I said on Friday that I thought we were at a level where the mkt might bounce & it did. Day 5 of Demark buy set up. We are also into the green zone where there is price memory.....

#stockmarket WE update. As I've been discussing for wks, the mkt would remain choppy into the election & it has. resolution feels closer but not there yet. Friday was constructive but still some issues ST. $SPY now bumping up against the Asc Triangle & back above key MA's... #stockmarket #Nasdaq is similar & held an important level. threatening to break the Asc Triangle formation and also above key MA's...

#StockMarket WE update: recent Demark 13 sell I posted this wk marked the swing high & choppiness ensued. Fri was ugly but could be opex related so for now just expecting more of the same unless stimulus resolution breaks us out or down. set up seems bullish but needs to confirm #stockmarket Demark Trendfactor lvls continue to be a good guide. 13 sell peaked @ 1x up lvl, & found support on 1/2 lvl down. see white boxes for up lvls & blue for down lvls in chart above. daily #SPX chart below also showing a close right @ 5 day EMA on Fri....

#stockmarket WE update. Sometimes when everything seems to be working, breaking out, acting as it should or we hope, IMO, means things are getting too easy. My gut says we are there & time to retrench a bit. Last wk pump job screwed the bears but could mean now we fall harder.... #Stockmarket hard to know how this shakes out but as you can see in this thread, my indicators are flashing yellow. $INDU currently w/ first Demark Seq 13 sell last wk since the low & new aggressive seq 13 w/ so sto overbot. also hitting wkly resistance. but Prop up tgt =29526...

hmmmmm volume 👌

#StockMarket I hope you all had a great WE. Some quick mkt thoughts as head into a new wk. Last WE I suggested a break of 50day/wk low could yield #SPX 3280ish, we reached 3292. RSI divergence was erased; next Demark Trend Factor levels: 3262 & 3200 (coincides w/ 3180 area).... #StockMarket #SPX I also mentioned the pot'l for a midwk turnaround on Demark exhaustion signals but early wk strength negated the count & has now started over. the Naz also erased its count & now has a Demark propulsion down tgt of 10470. still looks very vulnerable....

#StockMarket officially back from Vaca & back in the saddle. The call last week to fade $QQQ was the correct one. -5.7% peak to trough, & the argument for rotation pot'l also occurred. That said the mkt is stubbornly resilient and tough to be too bearish, yet i remain cautious: #StockMarket $QQQ weekly ugly candle on elevated volume and last time we saw that happen, more weakness ensued. RSI continues to neg diverge & now threatening to break the RSI trend line. MACD neg divergence as well w/ recent lower high and neg cross again....