#Syria the weak & unstable reconciliation in #Daraa reached #Damascus countryside. Clashes erupted between ex-rebels and regime forces in Kanaker town as regime forces tried to enter the town and arrest locals who protested yesterday after regime arrested 3 women on a checkpoint
Tension in Kanaker has been escalating in the past few months after regime TV aired an interview of 5 young men and 1 woman accused of being affiliated with underground insurgency group Saraya Qasioun, they said they were responsible for IED attacks in Damascus & its countryside
The alleged cell said they were led by former commander of Furqan Brigade, ex-rebel group in Quneitra & Damascus countryside. The leader of the Brigade Majed al-Khatib, currently in Jordan, denied accusation & said the young men were tortured & forced to say so #Syria
Saraya Qasioun also said the same in a statement as its attacks continued against regime elements. In April, reconciliation committee met regime commanders who gave two options: either ex-rebels leave to N Syria or regime will attack like Sanamyn town in Daraa #Syria
It would be interesting to see if this escalation would reach other areas giving the social and kinship between the locals and families in Quneitra, Daraa and Damascus provinces #Syria
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Some thoughts about #Syria
-regime will put up a fight in Hama because it prefers an urban area over an open base in the countryside. Opposition is not an army that can clear and move from a street to another while battling armored vehicles and tanks
-Russia doesn't have the ability to send soldiers and officers, the RuAF in Syria can't launch a lot of precise airstrikes against opposition armed convoys like it did between 2016-19. Regime airforce can cause a lot of damage but not a successful air campaign.
-Syrian opposition know its limit in terms of power and won't overplay its hand. The manpower will be needed to clear Idlib and attack/defend regime pocket in military bases south #Aleppo city. SNA forces may be useful reinforcement in Aleppo
Few thoughts on opposition current attack in NW #Syria:
-Turkey is not directly involved but accept it, the normalization process isn't satisfactory amid regime’s stubbornness that wasn't solved by Russia nor Arab countries. Turkey's next steps based on what happens on the ground
-regime's military failure is the same for the past 14 years, it could retake the areas it lost but not without massive manpower and Russian air support. Limited numbers of Iranian&Hezbollah skilled fighters will be difficult for the regime.
-years of IDF airstrike on regime’s military industry and Russia being busy in Ukraine can be seen in the lack of rockets, artillery and weapons, this was replaced with FPV drones that won't benefit regime now. Meanwhile opposition didn't use ATGM *yet*
Disappointed to see a well-established organization like ICG hiring someone who pushes twisted narrative on Syria that aligns with the regime propaganda that dehumanize Syrian victims of atrocities
ICG latest hire Nanar Hawach repeatedly parroted Assad regime and Russia propaganda, following the same mis/disinformation tactics that has been created and pushed to dehumanize and attack Syrian victims
on CW attack on Khan Sheikhoun in 2017, Mr. Hawash repeats on a podcast the Kremlin-sponsored lie of false flag operation, despite being a "researcher" he didn't read OPCW findings and numerous evidence point to regime web.archive.org/web/2023102321…
#Syria 1- Qadri Jameel, the head of People's Will Party which recently signed a memorandum with Syrian Democratic Council, said Jeffrey told SDC the 5 points of US policy for Syria and the northeast told by special sources. Points below. (9:00)
2- Said Jeffrey stated the following
-Turkey will not capture any new area, if so it would face sanctions
-pushing for the Kurdish-Kurdish dialogue to establish a bigger opposition outside the SY coalition
-Cut\disengage the relationship with PKK #Syria
3- -USA doesn't want to give the Kurds a rule\power, but a unified #Syria with protection of the Kurds rights
-This is the policy of the USA and it will not be affected by the US elections.
Jameel didn't mention if he got the information from SDC #Syria
#Syria on Monday schools reopened in regime-held areas after 6 months, the Dean of Faculty of Medicine Dr. Nabogh al-Awa criticised the decision & the Minister of Education, today the Dean was replaced & he said he only heard the decision on Facebook not official channels
The choice of Dr Darem Tabba'a as new Minister of Education was faced with criticism & sarcasm by Syrians because of his profession veterinarian, and the decision to not appoint a more suitable candidate with proper experience & knowledge of the education field #Syria
Majority of Syrians criticised reopening schools now while #COVID19 situation is not going well, of course the decision is beyond the powers of the minister but the quarrel between the minister & the dean on media was a hot topic on social media and local media #Syria
#Syria loyalist websites& fb pages claimed the new government will be announced tomorrow, notably FM Moualem will be replaced by Bassam Sabbagh the Syrian ambassador at OPCW, Janset Kazan to be new Minister of Social Affairs and Labour. In addition to other changes
Moualem has been sick for some time and went into a coma last year, it would be interesting if Sabbagh not Jaafari nor Maqdad who are more famous and spent more time in MoF than him.
Janset is the wife of famous&former intelligence commander Walid Abaza (died in 2017), the family are Circassian from Quneitra province, last year Abkhazia put a statue of him. Janset was a MP but withdrew her candidacy days before the last election, very close to Asma al-Assad