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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Sep 22, 2020 • 6 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
To respond to #COVID-19 misinformation & provide support to communities from scientists @COVID_19_Canada is now conducting kitchen table-style virtual discussions in communities & posting open access "explainers" translated into multiple languages covid19resources.ca/explained.html
Communities who would like to hold kitchen table-style #COVID-19 discussions (in any of all major languages spoken in Canada), you can request scientists here: covid19resources.ca/requestvolunte…

We try to place volunteers already connected to communities to build longterm relationships.
Media, newspapers, journalists etc in under-served regions, you can publish our #COVID-19 Science Explained pieces free of charge if you credit us (pls let us know).

Scientists who want to contribute pieces pls go here: covid19resources.ca/explained.html
We recruit volunteer science translators & communicators from the @COVID_19_Canada volunteer database.

You can sign up to volunteer w/ translation or #COVID-19 science communication here covid19resources.ca/Volunteer.html
We also provide volunteers across #Canada for any community, organization, initiative needing help w/ their #COVID-19 response. This help can be science-related, but we also just get people out who can do things like deliver meals, get groceries etc.
Organizer in chief for @COVID_19_Canada #COVID-19 kitchen table virtual discussion initiative is @KrishanaSankar.

Organizer in chief for @COVID_19_Canada COVID-19 Science Explained initiative is @DeNovo_Fatima .

Lots of others involved too.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 22
Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 21, 2024-Jan 3, 2025

CANADA

VERY HIGH (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 498,200-511,200

About 1 in every 82 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~9X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~9X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.1 About 1 of every 82 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 498,200-511,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.3X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 8.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH; 11.7X higher Deaths: HIGH; 9.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 21, 2024-Jan 3, 2025

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

MODERATE (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 3,700-3,8500

About 1 in every 143 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~5X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.9 About 1 of every 143 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,700-3,850 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 5.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.3X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every ...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 19
#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir #CovidCautious
Holiday Dance Night
Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast

The full thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading.

lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…Image
Note: Forecast data will be posted on the weekend, those pages on the website have not been updated.
Holiday Dance Night
Nanny and her diabetic teen granddaughter are a high risk household. Because they are vulnerable, they have to miss inside family gatherings much more than they’d like in order to protect themselves . They both would love to celebrate with the rest of their friends and family on New Years Eve at the community Holiday Dance Night.

But is there any way to make it safe enough for them?
Many of us know, live with, or are vulnerable. We have a lot of people in our communities who are immune compromised, immune suppressed, or have long COVID. People who have to be extra careful about infections. It’s a lonely journey to keep safe these days, often having to stay away from events with crowds.
So, just how risky are those community gatherings?

There’s a Dance Night at the high school gym coming up. About 60 folks dancing to tunes for a couple hours, it would be so much fun to join in.
Read 11 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 6
The Data Card, “Family Holiday Dinner - Before”, shows how wise it is for everyone to mask while visiting inside.

We looked at a group of 10 people, you’re one of them, gathering for a 3 hour visit. People are chatting, but it’s mostly a quiet group enjoying each other’s company.

The scenario uses an average size dining room, 16 x 32. The airflow is well mixed among this and the other rooms and the outside doors are closed.

What can you do?We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
What can you do? Open the windows.

What can you do?

You can make your event even more safe by providing rapid tests beforehand and N95 masks as people arrive. This lets everyone know that you care about their health.

What else can you do?

Set up an Outside Food Zone. ™

If the weather is, ahem, wintery, and you have the resources, get a fire pit going.

Explore other ways to warm the space, maybe candles, those amazing patio heaters, or a tether ball to kick to warm everyone up. Don’t forget to provide gloves and blankets too.

Create an inviting space for people to bring their food out, unmask, safely eat at a distance from the crowd. When they’re ready they can join the folks inside again knowing that they are helping to keep everyone safe.

The “Family Holiday Dinner - Before” Card shows the maximum risk people that take on. We’re using the safest estimate for one-off events that often have visitors from away, may include a super spreader, and carry higher potential risks.
Your most vulnerable people will want to use these estimates since, for us, it’s best to assess risk by assuming the worst. We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
Read 8 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~28X higher
-Hospitalizations ~29X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 10,600-11,300

About 1 in every 64 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~17X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 17.5 About 1 of every 64 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 10,600 - 11,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines e...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 190 200-1 266 300

Environ 1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X 🔺
-COVID longue ~28X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X 🔺
-Décès ~26X 🔺This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 10 600-11 300

Environ 1 personne sur 64 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~17X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~15X🔺Image
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 27.3 - SEVERE Alberta: 30.0 - SEVERE British Columbia: 16.1- SEVERE Manitoba: 30.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 28.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 17.5 -SEVERE North: 25.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 30.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 27.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 26.2 - SEVERE Quebec: 27.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 30.0 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 2%/week (-5% to +8%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 43 people are currently infected (~175,000 infections/day).

A new surge/wave has started, later than usual for this time of year in many provinces. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
Read 13 tweets

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