Thread by @anna_katharinak

1/10 What will the long-awaited EU #MigrationPact presented today (audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/1/20200…) mean for EU external #migration governance and the #EU’s partnership with African countries? Here are some of my takeaways....
#MigrationEU

2/10 First, no surprises. The pact outlines mostly a continuation of existing approaches concerning partner countries.
Yet, with
2. A stronger focus on migration diplomacy to increase returns (and making use of enriched tools: finances, visa policy, a new EU coordinator)

3/10 Elements of the ‘external dimension’ of the pact were already agreed early on as they are far less controversial among EU member states, However, the pact links return to internal solidarity putting pressure on EU member states to convince partner countries to cooperate.

4/10 ‘Keeping people in their countries’ continues to be a cornerstone. Incentives will include more money (10% of NDICI), support for COVID-response and post-COVID rebuilding… for this the expectation is more readmission agreements, more returns, jointly fighting smuggling

5/10 While aid conditionality is not the favoured approach of Commissioner @YlvaJohansson, the EU can make use of its visa policy (bit.ly/35YuUSX) if there is no cooperation on return. The ambition to create more legal pathways may also be linked to return cooperation

6/10 But African countries may apply the same logic in a ‘partnership of equals’: Why cooperate more if there is no progress on legal migration opportunities, which the EU has promised as part of a comprehensive partnership for years, for instance?

7/10 All of this has not only been part of recent bilateral discussions and visits (🇲🇷, 🇹🇳, 🇩🇿, 🇱🇾 and 🇲🇦), but the migration topic is also part of the post-Cotonou negotiations (yet to be finalised) and the preparations for the now postponed EU-AU Summit bit.ly/3hpyLKY

8/10 Finding compromise in these processes will be tough. The EU will not only need to resolve the internal dimension but African partner countries will need to feel that there are tangible benefits for them (as part of the win-win situation highlighted by the EU)

9/10 This also entails building coalitions of willing EU MS to increase safe and legal pathways with individual partner countries (matching labour markets, link to professional formation), support sust. reintegration, increase efforts on remittances/ diaspora investment.

10/10 Next to fighting smuggling, EU interest in supporting partner countries in their protection and asylum systems will also further grow, e.g. in North Africa. This will need to engage with national/ local politics, something we @ECDPM will explore in an upcoming publication.