At smarterscout.com, we use a unique algorithm calibrated to a decade of debuts in Europe's top five leagues to spot young talent. Premium users can see the young prospect badge, and Pro users can use it to search. Here are a few from the EFL:
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EFL Championship:
Bryan Mbeumo – flagged 2018-19 in Ligue 2.
Already close to average in attack for the Premier League, good in the air, great tackler, amazing finisher. That's why stats-driven Brentford let him take shots like these in open play. Scores from dead balls.
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EFL League One:
Luke Woolfenden – flagged 2019-20 in League One.
Already an average defender at RCB for the Premier League, great tackler. Quality at LCB as well, though lower ball retention. Look at the Premier League RCBs with a similar style to Woolfenden's. Great list.
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EFL League Two:
Harry Pickering – flagged 2018-19 in League Two.
Has improved to a fantastic Premier League standard, awesome in duels, top finisher. A modern fullback, comes inside in both halves of the pitch, involved in 40%+ of dangerous attacks. Big clubs take notice.
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P.S. If you're a club that wants to spot players in Ligue 2 like Brentford or pick up the top prospects in Leagues 1 and 2, maybe USD100/month on Pro membership to smarterscout.com would be money well spent. Get in touch anytime via our site for a guided tour. Thanks!
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First off, the basics. Vlahović has a total of 13 non-penalty goals and assists in about 3,000 league minutes over two seasons at Juventus. (Juventus! In Serie A!) You don't need fancy stats to say that's not too impressive. But let's look at the fancy stats anyway....
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Vlahović's attacking output in our models has actually declined since he left Fiorentina. His ball retention has also been decidedly lousy. So what's special about him? He's an avid defender and a great finisher. But let's find out just why he looks like such a deadeye....
Chelsea's new owners spent more than £550m in the transfer market – what did they get, and how have the players performed?
We start at the top with Enzo Fernández. Though his attacking output is down, his numbers are similar to at Benfica:
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Next, Wesley Fofana. He has also looked good, though not quite as good as at Leicester. And playing wide in a back three tends to boost metrics (more attacking opportunities, fewer backstop defending plays):
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Mykhailo Mudryk. There was supposedly a battle to sign him, but we warned about his poor finishing. Pretty sure we got that one right. But even his underlying attacking output is way down from Shakhtar.
He's now 23 and was never flagged as a smarterscout young prospect. His attacking output was decent last season (even at Atleti!), but he rarely got shots off for a striker. His finishing and skills are so-so at a Premier League standard:
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A big reason behind the drop in João Félix's attacking output this season has been lower shot quality. But his shots were never so great for a striker – we'd want to see something more like 0.15 to 0.20 xG per shot:
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Here are João Félix's shot maps in open play from this season and last at striker. Lots of lousy long-range efforts and, when he's successful, finishes from the edge of the six-yard box. Feast or famine.
THREAD: Where does Enzo Fernández fit in at Chelsea?
We flagged him as a smarterscout young prospect in 2021 with Defensa y Justicia, and just two years later he's a World Cup winner heading for the Premier League. His overall stats at a PL standard are amazing:
The main caution with Enzo Fernández is that his skill ratings are pretty average for the Premier League so far. But he's an aggressive player on both sides of the ball. He's a very attacking DM, involved in the majority of Benfica's goals when on the pitch:
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But the majority of Enzo Fernández's attacking comes from incisive passing – he hardly gets into the box at all, as our smartermap shows:
A short thread on Casemiro. At age 30, he's still a very aggressive defender with high ball retention and good attacking output at a Premier League standard. But his defending quality has been dropping, and he's been relatively worse in the #UCL.
Casemiro covers a lot of ground but stayed quite central for Real Madrid last season. He doesn't come out to cover on the flanks very often, and he rarely gets in to the box. That doesn't stop him from taking pot shots, though....
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Right now Casemiro has a lot in common with countryman Fernandinho in his early 30s. Casemiro is better in the air but worse in 1v1s. He also dribbles less and does more progressive passing than Fernandinho did back then.
Norwich have signed forward Milot Rashica ("hra-SHEET-sa") from Werder Bremen for €11m. We've been following him since 2015 – and he hasn't been as productive lately as he was in 2018-19. Let's find out why not.
Stats at a Premier League standard:
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As you can see above, Rashica has played mainly as a striker for Werder Bremen, with great skill in 1v1s but declining attacking output. His style hasn't changed much, but his passing has gotten less aggressive and his dribbling has declined a little bit:
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The share of Rashica's ball progression contributions from receiving doubled since 2018-19, while the share from passing is about the same. The remainder is his individual actions – so he's not taking the ball forward and winning as many duels as he used to: