Stefan Baral Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Quantitative Study Designs and Critical Appraisal

Intended to help to do independent critical appraisal of the data being released in #COVID19 including an overview of study designs.

Also to help you assess whether "experts" did critical appraisal or are just repeating abstract
Quantitative Study Designs

Only covering studies where unit of analysis is an individual person.

There are also ecological studies which use a population as the level of analysis and systematic reviews & meta analyses which quantitatively combine results of several studies.
Observational Studies - Descriptive

Examples: case reports, case-series reports, surveillance studies, surveys

Cross-sectional studies - Describe the prevalence of a disease or other phenomena without looking for associations between variables
Observational Studies - Analytic Cross-Sectional

Can test a hypothesis of associations between exposures, risks and possible causative factors and outcomes.

Pros: Easy, Cheap, no loss to follow up
Cons: Limited causal inference, selection bias, confounding, effect modification
Observational Studies - Analytic Cohort Studies

Prospective or Retrospective
Process: Classify people by exposure (use matched comparison), follow up and observe outcome
Pros: Better causality, calculate incidence, measure multiple outcomes
Cons: Generalizability, secular trends
Experimental Studies - Quasi-Experimental Studies

Synonymous with non randomized intervention study but try and assess impact

Overview: Difference in Differences, ITS, Regression Discontinuity, etc
Pros: Study exposures where RCT infeasible
Cons: Challenge for Interpretation
Randomized Control Trials

Types: Treatment & Prevention, Individuals & Communities, single arm vs. multi arm, normally 4 phases from safety to efficacy to post-marketing studies

Pros: Randomization eliminates the effect of confounders
Cons: expensive, generalizability, + time
Critical Appraisal -- ODDCHAIR

O: Objectives
D: Design
D: Definitions
C: Data Collection
H: Data Handling
A: Data Analysis
I: Interpretation
R: Reporting

Using a framework for a standardized approach to critically appraising studies can facilitate meaningful but rapid review.
Skip the conclusions in abstract as will cloud review.

1) Be a skeptic
Worst case scenario, the investigators are proven right.
2) All studies are flawed
The key is whether flaws are declared and addressed as much as possible
3) Appraising evidence is complex--but another thread
ODDCHAIR

Objectives -- Understanding the objectives is critical as should guide the design, methods, analyses, and reviews
Design -- Does design make sense based on objectives given earlier tweets
Definitions -- Clear definitions for inclusion, exclusion, exposure, and outcomes?
Data Collection -- Review how they collected data--in person, virtual, over what time frame, etc
Data Handling -- See if they report how data went from the individual to analyses (including biological samples or self-reported data)
Data Analysis -- More complex, but do analyses make sense for the type of data available. This is where an expert could actually be useful rather than just repeating abstract
Interpretation -- All researchers are guessing, but is it consistent with hypothesis and objectives?
Reporting -- Are all inputs needed for you to decide whether the study makes sense available to you in the paper? Is reporting consistent with best practices -- ie STROBE, MOOSE, etc. Check equator-network.org

Pro tip: DATA ARE ALWAYS PLURAL! Or it is just a date :)

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More from @sdbaral

Jul 20, 2022
For everyone coming to #AIDS2022, the Canadian gov't has reintroduced mandatory random arrivals testing.

The process will likely be convoluted for people staying in hotels as kits will need to be shipped to you or maybe can get one at airport and then returned somehow.

(sorry)
Most people attending #AIDS2022 will be flying into YUL/Montreal Airport.

I contacted Biron (the federal testing contractor in Quebec) and there are 3 options for testing.

1) At airport
2) Locations in Montreal where nurse will take swab
3) Shipping self-collection swab.

2/x
The Biron representative said that testing at YUL should continue for the next two weeks which would include folks arriving for the conference.

So if chosen, could just do test there and will get results in 24h.

If no longer there or wait too long (or tired), options 2/3.

3/x
Read 9 tweets
May 11, 2022
A public health program implemented without a detailed plan is no more likely to succeed than a house built without a detailed blueprint.
Epidemiological data is one of many inputs into public health recommendations.

Others include:
1) knowledge, attitudes, and practices of affected communities
2) human rights
3) legal contexts
4) human behavior and desires

A pragmatic PH recommendation integrates more than data.
Never get ahead of the community or population you aim to serve with your program or message.

It is natural to assume that you are "helping" but critical to have a feedback mechanism in place to continually confirm and adapt as needed.

If no one comes, it's on you and not them.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15, 2022
Paper 19:

Led @Mat__MG, @mishrash, we studied structural risks for #COVID19 in 16 cities across Canada.

Critical for resource-driven interventions to address unmet needs as hypothesized "trickledown benefits" from protecting some folks was insufficient.

cmaj.ca/content/194/6/…
Paper 20:

Led by Barlo MS Center, we studied the prevalence & severity of #COVID19 in 7000 people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS).

No clear increase in burden of #COVID19 in PwMS, but trend of increased severity with certain disease modifying therapies.

msard-journal.com/article/S2211-…
Paper 21:

Led @mugecevik, we built on ideas by @mishrash about importance of networks when considering #COVID19 transmission dynamics and intervention impact.

tldr: we need to do more for people who need more--and need to ask them what it is they need.

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Read 7 tweets
Nov 11, 2021
I'm going to start a living thread summarizing all of the #COVID19 papers that I have been part of--both data-driven and commentaries/editorials.

Ultimately, anything I say here is based on what I've seen play out in studies around the world.

20 months in...we know a lot.

1/x
Paper 1:

In working with our colleagues at @amfar, we described the disproportionate effects of #COVID19 on disproportionately Black counties across the US.

Drivers of disparities were related to living & working conditions at the ecological level.

2/x

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32419766/
Paper 2:

We published a commentary in @CMAJ suggesting that early data showed #COVID19 in Canada was marked by heterogeneity in risks of infection, spread and severity across people, places and time.

And responding necessitated adaptive responses.

3/x

cmaj.ca/content/192/25…
Read 12 tweets
Oct 4, 2021
Just a FYI that one can be very pro-vaccination and appreciate that immunity from infection is real.

Thoughts:
1) No sane folks seek to be infected
2) Immune system is more than a few antibodies
3) Downplaying infection-derived immunity is an unnecessary battle that burns trust.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 5, 2021
Let's pretend every business implements a #vaccinepassport.

Stay with me and let's think through some logistics.

1/x

(I'm not gonna edit as need to do kiddo bedtime stuff...but just to say, anyone who thinks this is easy has not really thought about that much at all)
Entering business

Does business scan your passport at the front door? If so, do they place an employee by the front door? If not, is the door locked and then unlocked via QR code? If so, does it only allow one person in at a time? If not, do they have a person watching?

2/x
If it is a restaurant, maybe the host does it before seating you? And if self-seating, then maybe waiter does it at the table? So they just eye ball it or do they need to scan something? Do they scan each person or just one person? Do they also check matching photo ID?

3/x
Read 5 tweets

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