Thread by @ahmedaftab68

1-To keep schools open,economy going we need fit for purpose #TrackAndTrace

Spent 5 minutes this morning analysing track&trace data from 3-9 Sept

Was amazed at the extent of failure of current track&trace

Read through this thread to see what I mean

@KailashChandOBE

2-#SercoTestAndTrace proudly declares 73.8% of known contacts reached between 3-9 Sept

Does this means that maybe 26.2% of potential contacts not reached & hence not isolating?

Not really....... read on

@anilkjain61 @DrUmeshPrabhu @DrOKaneAgain @trentconsultant @helenbevan

3-#NHSTestAndTrace doesn't mention out of 18371+cases b/w 3-9 Sept it got close contact details from only 10653 cases

73.8% contacts it reached is infact 73.8% close contacts of 58% not all positive cases b/w 3-9 Sept

42% +cases close contacts it did not even tried to reach

4- Close contacts of all 18371+ cases were potentially 106556 #nhstestandtrace reached only 45653 contacts ie 42.84% of potential close contacts reached not 73.8% as claimed

Its get even more worrying.....

@surashsurash @BrennanSurgeon @NikkiKF @drpshukla @BMJLeader @raj_psyc

5- Crucially, of people then asked to self-isolate (45,653) by #nhsTrackandTrace an estimate from governments own SAGE suggests fewer than one in five might be fully adherent to self-isolation & quarantine ....

@ashwin_endo @dr_sakthi @NickyHay4Blog @ParagSinghal09 @ShafiAhmed5

6- So from106556 potential close contacts of positive cases b/w 3-9 Sept maybe 9131 contacts self isolated a sum total of 8.56%

No wonder virus is spreading!

@TheBMA @CNagpaul @DavidGWrigley @helenamckeown @drhfidler @H3MADRI @BAPIOUK @jsbamrah @smileywalshey @terry_moran1

7- @petermbenglish @doctorshaib @DPH_MAshton @BWDDPH @AbdulRazaq_PH @felly500 @Smithkjj @FurberA @andrewleedr @ADMBriggs @trishgreenhalgh @Dr2NisreenAlwan @ProfKevinFenton @ADPHUK
have a look 👆 thread & please tell me if my understanding of the figures is wrong

if it is not..

8- If we are to keep the virus in check we must improve #nhsTrackandTrace and we the public must follow isolation guidance

I knew #SercoTestAndTrace was a shambles but never thought that situtaion was so dire...

@inzyrashid @AmaraSophia @darshnasoni @MurtazaViews @ainajkhan

9-A fit for purpose Track&Trace is possible.

👇 example from a developing country. 40+ive cases in Islamabad on 14 Sept 100% #TrackandTrace with all 954 contacts quarantined

It can be done. The secret of success of successful Track&Trace ......

@NadiaBukhariUCL @ProfDonnaHall

10. Secret of successful Track & Trace service is simple

-locally led
-properly resourced
-provision of real time local intelligence
-trust&buy in from local communities

This is what our PH experts have been telling the Govt for weeks

Please 🙏 @MattHancock listen to them

@threadreaderapp unroll