🔥is now shaping the Arctic. In @NatureGeosci
we outline a call to action. Key messages - 1) a global climate problem requires a global scale solution, 2) western science can't tackle this without Indigenous knowlege holders. w/ @jmccarty_geo@DrTELSinstaar.colorado.edu/news-events/in…
2/ Will Arctic 🔥 burn into ancient carbon stored in peat & permafrost? We conclude that the 2020 fires in Siberia showed signs of holdover or zombie fires, which can overwinter in deep peat & influence burning the following season. This represents momentum in the climate system.
3/ Scientists have long debated the use of the term zombie fire, but also the importance of these holdover conditions. How important are they? Moving from anecdotal to monitoring will require collaborating with local knowledge holders. ilinationhood.ca/our-work/guard…
4/ 🔥 in Siberia is affecting ecosystems we typically regard as fire resistant. This is also happening in the boreal biome - systems used as fire breaks are becoming fire problems. These also tend to be the hot spots of peat carbon accumulation in these landscapes.
5/ I love to tweet about peat, but I also love permafrost. In our paper, @DrTELS concluded that most of the Siberian fires occurred in the most sensitive type of permafrost to abrupt thawing or thermokarst. We describe this process in more detail here. nature.com/articles/d4158…
6/ What is the role of Arctic 🔥 in the potential carbon cocktail of permafrost thaw and landscape change? With temps >100 degF this summer and massive craters opening up due to thaw, fire is an additional hazard that can accelerate thawing ground.
7/7 Despite the potential carbon cocktail, I remain hopeful for our Arctic & climate future. Indigenous communities have coexisted peacefully with 🔥. And what might limit fire in a warmer climate? ....fire itself. We have much to learn, but we desperately need a new approach.
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There is a ton of misinformation in my replies so here is a primer on permafrost carbon. Permafrost stores a HUGE amount of carbon because ancient life took up CO2, built biomass, then died. That organic matter (~50% C) slowly accrued in Earth's best freezer for 1000s of yrs. 1/
When frozen organic matter in permafrost warms, microbial activity speeds up. Microbes use the organic matter in their respiratory processes, which can release a variety of GHGs as byproducts, mostly CO2 but also methane, which make their way to the atmosphere. 2/
Good: Not all permafrost carbon is vulnerable to this microbial processing, & hopefully not all permafrost will thaw.
Bad: A lot of permafrost is thawing and will thaw.
Ugly: Permafrost thaw will release enough CO2 and CH4 that it will join the world stage of major emitters. 3/
Fire Facts from a Boreal 🔥 Ecologist to help you understand what is really going on in Canada.
Fire Fact 1: The term “forest fire” is misleading in boreal regions. Also burning are peatlands and permafrost ecosystems, which store LOTS of ancient carbon. 1/
Fire Fact 2: We tend to picture crown fires, with flames leaping up into tall trees. However, the majority of what burns and fuels boreal fires is ON THE GROUND. More than 80% of what burns and emits greenhouse gas is moss, peat, and litter. 2/
Fire Fact 3: 🔥 connects the world in complex ways. Smoke is transported globally and affects lung health for millions. Smoke and soot travel to the Arctic, speeding up ice melt. Arctic melt created the conditions for extreme burning in 🇨🇦 and widespread smoke plumes. Wow. 3/
False narratives about the #Arctic & #permafrost are being driven by the media. Here are some facts from science. 1) permafrost underlies 1/4 of N hemisphere land and 1/2 of Canada. Frozen ground is a backbone for ecosystems and infrastructure. 1/ fediscience.org/@queenofpeat/1…
Fact 2: It’s false to say thaw is unprecedented as it has happened in the past. However, rates of thaw are getting faster w/ warming, and because of climate change some permafrost will never return. Here is a video of me realizing ancient permafrost in Alaska is gone forever. 2/
Fact 3: Thawing permafrost is not why atmospheric methane (CH4) has increased so quickly in recent years. For now, permafrost thaw is a CO2 story, not a methane or nitrous oxide story. Hey climate reporters - Let’s keep our eye on the true story which deserves attention. 3/
I am seeing and receiving pushback for being a climate scientist speaking out about the #MarshallFire. I understand this perspective. 1) It's difficult to attribute the #ClimateCrisis to any single event, and 2) this event was extremely complex. But hear me out. 1/
1) The #MarshallFire was either a reminder or a wakeup call that whether you live up the canyon (like I do) or on the plains, 🔥 is an ongoing threat. 2) Climate-fire relationships are complex, but due to the #ClimateCrisis, we need to learn to live with 🔥 more than ever. 2/
Hurricane force winds & human development were important factors in the #MarshallFire. But fuel configuration and moisture, and invasive species also important. Fuels include natural & human-derived.
One thing is clear to me. We all need to unite under the same umbrella. 3/
~30,000 people fled the #MarshallFire, one of the most terrifying experiences we can face. Today I am reflecting on the added anxiety and consequences of fleeing a #climatemergency disaster during the COVID pandemic. Here I'll share a personal story w/ a tiny bit of insight. 1/
Just outside Boulder, circa January 2021
Normally I love the sound of wind in the trees. But the winds were howling that day. It was difficult to ignore. The house was groaning, shifting. We were in full lockdown due to COVID-19. I was trying to stay busy. 2/
My children were playing outside. Mommy I smell smoke...
At first I didn't smell anything. It was a red flag day. Everyone needed to be careful. But then I smelled it and we saw flames down the road. That is our only way out. What happened next was a blur. 3/
Permafrost stores 2x the amount of carbon in the atmosphere yet is not considered by many climate models. Are we totally screwed??? Here I will explain what we know and why I promote #ClimateActionNow but not panic. 1/
The Arctic (and its permafrost soils) is not a missing black box in any climate model, which all include Arctic soils. Until we explicitly include permafrost in these models, it is difficult to know what climate feedbacks we are missing. Likely to be in the middle. 2/
I research abrupt permafrost thaw, known to be a large source of methane. NO large scale models address abrupt thaw, yet. Ouch. Still, some portion of abrupt thaw fluxes are included in current modeling. What's the potential for overlap? More than zero, but we don't know. 3/