I’m getting swamped by emails from reporters and officials asking how the Trump assassination attempt will affect the election, so here’s my response: 🧵
Saturday’s shooting in Pennsylvania will still have a huge impact Election Day.
It will guarantee that every Trump supporter now will be a Trump voter in November. Trump's voters are energized, Biden's voters are demoralized.
In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm.
That participation gap is worth at least +1% to +2%. And because the shooting happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be most significant in Pennsylvania.
With classes now underway, it's time to explain why public schools have lost so many students – and why so many students took gap years rather than be "taught" online… (1/x)
The reason is simple: Parents who actually observed their kids’ classes for the first time were shocked to find what their children were (not) learning and said "ENOUGH!"
It happened nationwide, and it’s far from over. (2/x)
If you name your podcast “BASED,” you should at least be competent at reporting relevant context.
Do you think our murder rate would remain the same without widespread, easy access to firearms?
For instance: Would a mass-stabbing have the same mortality rate as a mass-shooting? Sure, there are substitutes for guns – but they drastically decrease the success rate of murders.