Nikos Chrysoloras Profile picture
Sep 30, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
So 🇭🇺, 🇵🇱, 🇸🇪, 🇫🇮, 🇩🇰, 🇳🇱 & 🇧🇪 opposed 🇩🇪’s compromise proposal on how to tie #NextGenerationEU & #MFF disbursements to the rule-of-law. 🇦🇹 & 🇱🇺 abstained. The proposal still got the required qualified majority. But in theory, any of these countries could still block the package:
Allowing the European Commission to raise the agreed debt (750 billion) needs unanimity. So the rule of law legislation only needs qualified majority, and 🇭🇺’s objections can be bypassed there, but if 🇭🇺 wants, it can block the “own resources” decision and blow the whole thing up
Plus we need to keep in mind that the EU Parliament also needs to give its backing to the package (by simple majority). Germany only got a mandate from Member states today to negotiate with the Parliament on the rule of law conditionality. It’s something, but not the end of it.
None of this makes sense of course, why would 🇭🇺 shoot its own foot, it needs the money as much as anyone, maybe more. And why would the EU Parliament risk being accused of blocking much-needed recovery package? But we report what they say, and they have threatened to block. ENDS
P.S: IMHO, it’s more logical for 🇳🇱 or 🇫🇮 to block the package, citing the lack of a strong enough mechanism to ensure they won’t be bankrolling Orban’s cronies, rather than 🇭🇺 blocking a package of 💶 that itself badly needs. Anyways, in both cases the PR cost would be huge

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More from @nchrysoloras

May 4, 2022
A key clause from the draft legal text of the latest package of sanctions. The EU is seeking to go beyond an import ban on Russian oil by targeting Moscow’s ability to sell *anywhere in the world*.
So basically vessels owned, chartered, operated or *otherwise controlled* by EU nationals & companies, *no matter if they carry an EU flag or not,* can't transport oil originating in Russia between places *anywhere in the world*. All services, including *insurance*, also banned
So, for example, a shipping tycoon with a Greek passport, no matter what flag his/her vessels carry, can't transport Russian oil between any countries anywhere, not just in Europe. Insurance provisions also banned. Our story on this:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28, 2022
The price that Russia is paying for the invasion is truly gigantic.

First, here's a list of all the punitive measures that have been imposed so far:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Russia was forced to impose capital controls, as the unprecedented measures triggered a run on 🏦 and created a "structural liquidity deficit".
Still, the country's central bank clarified that external debt will continue to be serviced:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A mass exodus of investors has started, as fund managers restrict access to Russian assets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 19 tweets
Feb 28, 2022
Now European stocks and U.S futures pare losses, they 're down less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Russia's stock market is closed and the country is facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Obviously some European companies are suffering, including banks (Raiffeisen), automakers, airlines, big oil (BP!), and luxury. But overall, while Russia is facing existential market stress, things in Europe seem to be under control. For now
If the standoff continues of course, there will be lasting detrimental consequences for all. There's no precedent of an economy so big & so central to the functioning of global supply chains (energy, commodities, food) being completely marginalized and North-Koreanized
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27, 2022
We seem to be tailspinning into chaos. I have covered crises before, but nothing comes even close:

1) BP decided to take a hit of as much as $25 billion, just to leave Russia immediately.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2) Russia's bond market is collapsing bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) Russians lined up at cash machines around the country to withdraw foreign currency bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 13 tweets
Feb 25, 2022
European stocks rebound today, and Russian stocks trim some of yesterday's losses.
Worth reading this column by @johnauthers on why markets are saying that Putin will get what he wants (small spoiler: see carve-outs in sanctions) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… ImageImage
And even more explicit in the messages below.
Our story on the carve-outs here:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
My colleague @AlbertoNardelli had first reported about this here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Nov 28, 2020
Υπάρχει σοβαρό πρόβλημα με το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό. Χθες, στη συνεδρίαση της Επιτροπής Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων, έγινε περιγραφή της κατάστασης με δραματικούς τόνους. Ελλάδα και Κύπρος (όπως και οι άλλες χώρες του Νότου) θα δεχθούν πλήγμα σε τρία μέτωπα:
Παρένθεση - η Επιτροπή Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων στις Βρυξέλλες (COREPER) είναι το επίπεδο όπου τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ λαμβάνουν το 98% των συλλογικών αποφάσεων τους. Οι υπουργοί *συνήθως* βάζουν μία τζίφρα σε αποφάσεις & κείμενα που έχουν ήδη συμφωνηθεί στο COREPER. Εξ ου και..
... ο Μόνιμος Αντιπρόσωπος κάθε κ-μ είναι η πιο σημαντική θέση της διοίκησης, πιο σημαντική από υπουργού. Τα κ-μ είναι ο βασικός νομοθέτης στην ΕΕ (σαν άνω Βουλή). Και οι αποφάσεις τους λαμβάνονται μέσω του COREPER. Κλείνει η παρένθεση. Χθες λοιπόν...
Read 16 tweets

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