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fly4dat Profile picture
@fly4dat
Sep 30, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
1/ #Tesla has a European market share of 16% that's falling. At the same time, Norwegian market share is less than half, 7%.

Image
2/ Norway is the only developed BEV market in the world, with ~50% of new cars sold being BEVs. What could the reason be for such a significant difference? Image
3/ Norway used to be Tesla's #2 (since inception) then #3 (until 2018) worldwide market after the US, thanks to the subsidies (taxes, bus lane use, free parking, other perks).

#Tesla sales fell in NO, ex initial M3 deliveries.

Even 18Q3/4 were better, when no M3 was there. Image
4/ Tesla has opened lots of service centers in Norway recently, so it's not service wait times.

Maybe Norwegians are simply poor in Europe? Mwhahaha, they are. If compared only to Luxembourg. Image
5/ Tesla doesn't ship enough cars? Why wouldn't they? That's been the narrative since 19Q1, the introduction of Model 3.
6/ The answer is easy. Norway is the only mature BEV market, therefore all OEMs that have a BEV offering are competing there. No other market can say the same.

When Tesla is alone, it can capture a nice niche. If there is competition, it's over for #Tesla.

7/ h/t @markbspiegel and @EconomicManBlog for mocking me to put together the European market share chart, @AlexT18503601 for pointing out the market share difference and @TESLAcharts for the inspiration.
8/ Source for market share data: official EU figures and my estimates.

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More from @fly4dat

fly4dat Profile picture
Aug 28, 2023
1/ The shipping window has closed, no Chinese ship departing after today could arrive in Europe on time for Q3 deliveries. Let's sum up where we are. $TSLA Image
2/ It is likely that we are ending Q3 with 7 ships from Shanghai, carrying M3, MY RWD and all RHD MY (UK). 1 of them went to the UK, the rest to Continental Europe. This compares to 14 total in Q2, of which 5 went to the UK.
3/ This means that the UK likely has the most serious demand problem, despite the 5-10% discounts, 0% APR financing with $0 down, and lots of demos with high discounts and 1-200 miles on them. There are still tons of cars in inventory, including M3.
Read 8 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
Aug 25, 2023
24h $TSLA summary:
- @TroyTeslike lowers his Q3 est to 451k, down 3.5% QoQ
- NHTSA is about to conclude its investigation into AP/FSD soon
- DOJ sues SpaceX for discrimination
- more US MY discounting
- used prices plummet
- VW has better powertrain
- Funding secured payouts
Read 9 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023
1/ $TSLA bulls are expecting a Model 2 announcement (not even an unveil) in March that will save Tesla.

Even if it doesn't get delayed by 4-5 years as CT, there is one thing that bulls don't understand: competition.

$TSLAQ
2/ Model 3 created a market of its own (sporty acceleration with cool UX cheaper than a MS). Model Y was a bit late but since others still can't meet demand, there was space for it outside the US, and in the US, it's still mostly uncontested.
3/ However, things are changing. Dismal Tesla numbers in China show that competition hasn't only arrived but is winning, mostly BYD but others take share from Tesla too. Tesla now has 5% market share in China, compared to mid-double-digits not long ago.
Read 8 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
Feb 21, 2023
Terrible, and trending down (1-quarter trendline). A collapse of 11.3% from 3 months ago, despite ~30% combined price cuts since.

You'll see the same in Europe.

It's over. Biden can give Musk another $6B/yr, that won't save the co.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
Bad, worse, Tesla

When BYD sells almost 6.9x as many as you do, and GAC Aion beats you too...
Read 6 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
Feb 4, 2023
1. Musk has settled with the SEC in 2018 bc "banks would have cut off financing and Tesla would have died".

2. Musk hasn't lied by tweeting "Funding Secured", because he could raise any amount of money and had lots of his own, for example in SpaceX.

Some ppl have it both ways.
1. That's what he said after having settled with the SEC. "No admission of guilt, but if I hadn't settled, the consequences would have been deadly for Tesla. Banks would have cut off credit lines and Tesla would have died" (not word by word, anyone can look it up)
2. In the current trial, Musk and Spiro went great lengths to prove that Funding was indeed secured but he could've raised any $$ elsewhere, including selling from his SpaceX stake.

This was to prove that "Funding Secured" wasn't a lie, while it shouldn't have been re-proven.
Read 13 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
Feb 3, 2023
If the jurors in Musk's Funding Secured case could learn implied volatility from a lawyer in a few minutes and hence award damages to the Plaintiff, my faith in humanity will dramatically change.
If only I could reply to Spiro's self-contradicting BS
Gonna call him Tweeting Monster from now on.
Read 5 tweets

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