Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1) Since the start of the school year, the two demographics that have been observing the sharpest percentage increases in positive #COVID19 test results are elementary and high school students, according to the latest data by the Montreal public health department. Let me explain.
2) Over the summer and during the second #pandemic wave, authorities have determined that young adults are driving community transmission of the #coronavirus. In Montreal, public health director Mylène Drouin has broadened the age group to include those aged 18 t 34.
3) These individuals have been inadvertently spreading the #coronavirus in the workplace and during private gatherings, Drouin has explained. This is all true. But since Aug. 25, the highly contagious pathogen has been infecting children at a faster rate. Let me show the stats.
4) Since Aug. 25 in Montreal, the number of new #COVID19 cases among those aged 10 to 19 (mostly high school students) has soared by 41.29%, the highest of any demographic. The next sharpest percentage increase is among elementary school students (aged 5 to 9): 28.53%.
5) The group to report the third sharpest spike are those aged 20 to 29, with an increase of 22.92%. In absolute numbers, this is the group that is declaring the biggest tally of #COVID infections: 1,232, against 519 among those aged 10 to 19.
6) The 20-to-29 demographic was declaring the most cases throughout the summer, but after schools reopened cases among the younger age groups have started to climb. During the summer, children were contracting the #coronavirus at camps and in the community. What’s happening now?
7) Are children and teens contracting #COVID in schools in addition to outside of them? What’s telling is Dr. Drouin noted the number of school outbreaks in the city has doubled to 30 in a week. Certainly, the school environment must not be discounted as a source of transmission.
8) On Wednesday, the Education Ministry identified 103 more active #COVID19 cases among students since Tuesday and 29 more among school employees across Quebec, according to the chart below. Teachers and other employees are contracting #COVID19 at a faster rate than students.
9) As of Wednesday night, more than one in five schools in the province has found at least one #COVID19 case, according to covidecolesquebec.org. What all these figures demonstrate is Quebec’s schools are now in a crisis of sorts, of shuttered classes and a lack of resources.
10) Yet during Premier François Legault’s new conference Wednesday afternoon announcing hefty fines for those who flout the latest public health guidelines, both the Premier and Quebec’s chief public health officer appeared to downplay the severity of this crisis in schools.
11) “I know I heard someone say that there was a lot of transmission in the schools,” Legault told reporters. “Not sure it’s that clear.” Added Dr. Horacio Arruda: “We have seen that there were transmissions in private gatherings, not necessarily at school.”
12) Thus, if the problem is not in schools, there's no need to provide added protection, correct? But there's a growing scientific consensus that there is a problem in schools, and quick solutions are needed — from improved ventilation to mandatory masks in class. End of thread.
Addendum: As usual, I produced lots of charts for tonight’s Twitter thread to examine the latest epidemiological trends in Montreal, which recorded 133.15 #COVID cases per million population on Wednesday. I will return to those charts in tomorrow night’s thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Nov 30
1) Author @GadSaad, who has taken an unpaid leave from Concordia University, has just written this commentary in the New York Post, headlined: "How Montreal became the antisemitism capital of North America." Here are my thoughts on this topic.

nypost.com/2024/11/30/opi…
2) Obviously, it's debatable as to whether Montreal is indeed the antisemitism capital of the continent. As many Jews are painfully aware, antisemitism sadly exists everywhere. But recent events in Montreal have caused many Jews here to feel unsafe.
montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) A friend just sent this text: "Recently, several of my Jewish friends - lifelong Montrealers - have made the difficult decision to leave the city. They’re not leaving for better opportunities or a change of scenery, but because they and their children no longer feel safe...+"
Read 6 tweets
Aug 16
1) BREAKING: The lengthy #COVID19 summer wave is continuing unabated in Quebec, along with other parts of North America and even around the world. Here in Quebec, it has been associated directly and indirectly with 1,100 hospitalizations for the past 12 days in a row. Image
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, the #COVID testing positivity rate in Quebec was 20.9 per cent as of Aug. 11, the most recent date available. The trend line suggests the positivity rate has yet to peak. Image
3) Although nowhere near as fatal as it was back in 2020 (when vaccination was unavailable), #COVID this year has nonetheless been linked to 675 deaths, 38.7 per cent of which have occurred in octogenarians. But 30 Quebecers in their 50s have also died from #COVID in 2023-2024. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets

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