Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Trump's belligerent & dangerous behavior obscured how poorly Biden performed for much of #2020debate. On health care he totally misrepresented his own position-making it sound worse than it is. His lead on health fell dramatically in @StanGreenberg focus groups of debate watchers
Sure it was tough w/Trump hectoring, but Biden not only failed to explain his plans to build on #ACA but said his public option is "only for those people who are so poor they qualify for Medicaid they can get that free in most States." No it's not. It's available for everyone
including those who pay too much for employer provided care. His website: "Whether you’re covered through your employer, buying your insurance on your own, or going without coverage altogether, the Biden Plan will give you the choice to purchase a public health insurance option"
He would automatically enroll those eligible for Medicaid in GOP states that won't expand it, but importantly he makes this available to everyone. Again, tough w/Trump hectoring, but Biden never mentioned any of his plan's elements that aid the middle-class,
These include much higher subsidies for people buying on exchanges and allowing Medicare to negotiate w/drug companies for lower prices & forcing all drug companies who want to participate in Medicare to limit price increases to inflation.
Again: extenuating circumstances, but pretty astonishing that as Trump names a Justice who could overturn the #ACA, Biden portrays his biggest health initiative as something solely for poor-exactly the messaging Ds have been trying to escape from 1st day Obama unveiled ACA
Bottom line: in the @StanGreenberg dial groups, Biden's advantage over Trump dropped during the debate more on health care than any other issue, w/ very big decline among non-col white women: precisely the group that were Ds most important target on #PreExistingConditions in 2018
Trump's ominous and erratic behavior, his open incitement & encouragement of white nationalists, his summons for violence & intimidation on Election Day, all justifiably overshadowed Biden's performance. But apart from #ClimateChange he didn't effectively explain any of his plans
Focus group women re-contacted by @SarahLongwell25 reinforce: horrified by Trump but few impressed by Biden. He's clearly ahead & any day that doesn't change the dynamic is good 4 him. But no one should pretend he performed well enough to resolve the doubts voters hold about him.

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More from @RonBrownstein

Mar 21
Among other lightning rod provisions @RepublicanStudy calls for repealing Medicare authority to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices, cap out of pocket drug spending for seniors, force rebates when drug cos increase prices faster than inflation & cut insulin price to $35
"Biden & Congressional Dems have embraced socialist price controls that will limit access to life-saving drugs....As part of the full repeal of the disastrous IRA, the RSC Budget would ensure continued access to these life-saving treatments by removing these price controls"
Medicare will announce its first round of lowered prices thru negotiations w/drug companies on 9/1/24. It's a centerpiece of Biden efforts to convince voters his agenda can lower their costs. Now largest caucus of House Rs gives him a clear contrast by proposing to repeal it
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
Trump mostly frames the race as a comparison b/twn their terms, arguing he left US in great shape & Biden derailed it. Biden has plenty to shoot at vs that argument, but multiple D strategists told me it'd be a mistake for Biden to claim success while so many are struggling
@davidaxelrod "I don’t think you want to argue about whether you are better off in those [Trump] years or these years. You want to argue about who will help you be better off in the future, and what you have to do to make people better off in the future.”
@patrickgaspard says that although Biden may want to accentuate the positive, it is more important for him to acknowledge the frustration that so many Americans feel about their “lived experience with inflation and immigration.” “
Read 8 tweets
Feb 12
Democrats face a dangerous convergence: The party must defend an unusually large number of seats in terrain that is highly contested at the presidential level precisely as Biden is struggling in polls against Trump
In Nov, Dems are defending 3 Senate seats in states where Trump beat Biden in 2020 (OH/MT/WV). Those have received much attention. But Dems are also defending 5 Senate seats in states that Biden in 20 won by 3 points or less. Rs aren't defending any in states Trump lost or won <3
That reflects a fundamental imbalance. Each side now dominates the Senate seats in the 25 states its presidential nominee won in 2020. But Biden won six states by 3 or less, compared to just 1 for Trump (NC). Even extending the net to 5 pts only adds 1 more narrow Trump state, FL
Read 9 tweets
Feb 11
Stephen Miller on the Trump deportation plan: "So you build these facilities where then you're able to say, you know, hypothetically, three times a day are the flights back to Mexico. Two times a day are the flights back to the Northern Triangle, right.
Miller: "On Monday and Friday are the flights back to different African countries, right. On Thursday & Sunday are the flights back to different Asian countries. So you create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly"
Miller: "Then in terms of personnel, you go to the red state governors and you say, give us your National Guard. We will deputize them as immigration enforcement officers. They know their states, they know their communities, they know their cities."
Read 8 tweets
Feb 10
To round up migrants, Miller said, Trump would dispatch forces to “go around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids.” Then, it would build “large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in TX,” to serve as internment camps for migrants
From these camps, admin would schedule constant flights returning migrants to their home countries. Miller: “You create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly, probably military aircraft, some existing DHS assets"
To staff this plan, Miller said a Trump administration would reassign personnel from other federal law-enforcement agencies such as ATF & DEA, “deputize” local police and sheriffs and requisition National Guard troops
Read 9 tweets
Dec 3, 2023
Both states have claims. But Hannity focused entirely on measures that favor FL (unemployment, violent-crime rate & homelessness) while ignoring all favoring CA-median income, health insurance, much lower rates of teen birth/infant mortality/firearm deaths, more life expectancy
Hannity essentially joined in a tag team w/DeSantis to frame the debate in terms familiar to his Fox audience that blue states are a chaotic hellhole of crime & "woke" liberalism.
The narrow focus on California and Florida made sense in a debate between their two governors. But those comparisons can obscure the bigger story, which is the expanding divergence between all the states in the red and blue sections.
Read 9 tweets

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