Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
@TomBollyky
Oct 1, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
The U.S. 'early' travel ban wasn't early, it wasn't a ban, and it wasn't effective

Worse still, the widespread use of travel bans by US & others have made us less safe.

New in @washingtonpost on from @JenniferNuzzo & me 1/

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
1. The US wasn't early

45 other countries implemented travel restrictions against China before US did on Feb. 2

At that point, US & 20+ other countries had already reported #COVID19 cases. Several were even reporting local transmission of cases 2/

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel…
Between the first official report of outbreak in China & announcement of U.S. travel restrictions, 40,000+ travelers from China are estimated to have entered United States 3/

nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/…
The measure that Trump administration implemented on Feb. 2 cannot be described as a “ban" that "closed the country" 4/

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
Restricting flights from China did nothing to prevent #SARSCoV2 from arriving from other parts of the world.

Genetic analyses have shown that large epidemic that unfolded in New York was linked to travelers from Europe 5/

science.sciencemag.org/content/369/65…
When Trump admin. expanded travel restrictions to Iran on 2/28 & to Europe on 3/12, it was too late

The US was approaching 2,000 cases, most likely a severe undercount

Chaotic implementation of ban on EU probably did more to spread virus than stop it 6/
politico.com/news/2020/03/1…
Scenario analysis suggests combination of travel restrictions within China and international travel restrictions against China may have delayed the spread of #COVID19

but... /7

science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
..those delays were more useful in nations such as New Zealand, Australia & Taiwan that used opportunity to expand testing, contact tracing and other aggressive measures to control spread of virus

The United States did not do so 8/
The US, sadly, is not alone in this regard 9/

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracki…
In the past, @WHO has warned that travel bans are risky b/c give nations “a false impression of control” — a misperception that a ban would stop spread of disease

The experience of United States and others in this pandemic suggests WHO had a point 10/

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
By March 25, 136 nations had imposed travel restrictions in this pandemic

Few were carefully designed and targeted, or adopted as part of a comprehensive response to #COVID19 pandemic 11/

who.int/docs/default-s…
In 2005, the International Health Regulations were revised to stop broad, unscientific use of travel bans

The reason? To make us safer

In past, nations hid outbreaks out of concern other nations would impose unnecessarily tough trade & travel restrictions against them 12/
Now that system is broken.

We need stricter rules on travel bans or a system of outbreak detection that doesn't depend on nations self-reporting

Both goals require global leadership.

Leadership that a US President should provide 13/13

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Tom Bollyky

Tom Bollyky Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TomBollyky

Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Oct 29, 2021
Developing safe & effective vaccine faster in a pandemic?

Helps but benefits only nations that can manufacture

Ensuring every region can make + administer vaccines as fast as rich nations?

Priceless.

Here's how via @JHSPH_CHS @JenniferNuzzo & me et al
bit.ly/3EwEA5n
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted some strengths and some significant gaps and weaknesses in this global pandemic R&D and response ecosystem 2/

centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
On one hand, pre-pandemic research into mRNA vaccines & public investment in COVID-19 vx R&D paid off hugely

Not one but several highly effective COVID-19 vaccines were developed, trialed & brought to market in 1 year

Previous record was 4 years (mumps) 2/
h/t @OurWorldInData
Read 23 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Sep 24, 2021
Countries have pledged to donate 1.9B COVID vaccines but delivered 1.1B

@samckiernan @serena_tohme combed govt websites, COVAX docs & media reports to identify the 61 nations that have pledged, where doses are going & which nations have yet to deliver 1/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/billio…
The US has most outstanding, but that is misleading as President Biden just this week added 500m to US total pledged donation by 1.1B COVID vaccine doses

Team Europe on the other hand...
2/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/billio…
Team Europe (EU Norway + Iceland) added 50M to its total pledge of 500m COVID vaccine doses

While Team Europe has administered 561M doses at home, it's donated just 33.8M doses - 6.8% of total pledge

W/in Team Europe, Germany has most undelivered

UK hasn't been much better 3/
Read 11 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Jun 9, 2021
Maximizing potential benefit of vaccine donations depends on doses going where they can do the"most good" but there's no consensus on where that would be

Murray @IHME_UW @RCReinerJr & I propose an approach that prioritizes epidemiology over geopolitics 1/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
This week's summit in Cornwall, UK should be the time when G7 leaders finally act on their promises to send surplus COVID-19 vaccine supplies to the many other countries where they remain scarce #G7UK

But how will those vaccine donations be allocated? 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
COVAX has been criticized by @ZekeEmanuel @GovindPersad & others for its population-based allocation scheme that does not direct most of its early vaccine supplies to the settings at the greatest risk of otherwise having high COVID-19 death rates 3/
nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opi…
Read 9 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Mar 27, 2021
Recent US pledge of 2.5 M vaccine doses to Mexico is notable:

-It's the largest single bilateral pledge of doses so far in this crisis

- It's going to a nation in great need

- It came from a democracy

Here's me in @TheAtlantic on why that matters 1/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
So far, 14 countries have donated a total of 22.5 million doses to 97 nations

Most donations outside of Asia-Pacific have been too small (150k doses or less) to meet local or global demands

2/
 thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…
Vaccine donations are distributing fewer doses than COVAX (22.5 million v. 32 million) but they are going to more countries (97 v. 60).

Yet, many of those donations are not going to the poorer nations most in need of doses 3/

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Jan 20, 2021
President-elect Biden has set a goal of vaccinating 100 million Americans (30% of the population) in 100 days.

It is an ambitious, achievable goal.

Here is what that will require, via @JenniferNuzzo, Sid Baccam @IEMNews, and me in the @nytimes 1/
nytimes.com/2021/01/20/opi…
Primary constraint on vaccinating more Americans so far has not been supply

Despite production shortfalls, US still distributed close to enough doses to vaccinate average of 1M people daily

Bigger hurdles have been administration & demand 2/
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Reaching 1 million people per day requires expanding beyond vaccinating small number of individuals on scheduled-basis to doing more mass vaccination

After 9/11, federal gov't thought through how to vaccinate many Americans in a short time 3/
liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
Read 10 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Dec 30, 2020
Good news! Vaccine is relatively cheap, easy to produce & store, well tolerated. 3B doses projected in 2021

Haven't seen submission or decision, but MHRA reportedly approved 2 dose regimen (62% effective) & is encouraging a 1-dose regimen to speed access
Results published in Lancet indicate say this a/b 1 dose regimen

It will be interesting to see public response and distribution strategy for regimen w/lower efficacy than Pfizer/Moderna options & uncertainty about duration of protection
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Apparently, Oxford/AstraZeneca has not even filed a submission package with EMA yet. FDA decision isn't coming soon either.

This is such an important vaccine for global access and so much is strange about how its sponsors have pursued it
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(