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Oct 2, 2020 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/11
Another interesting #AVCT slide I liked, which again supports what I have been saying today.

"Avacta is addressing the very significant COVID-19 testing opportunity in UK first and will continue to scale manufacturing to meet global demand"

What a lovely sentence that is.
2/11
Particularly when they go on to talk about 30m people testing themselves once a week, delivering 120m tests per month.

That's just one market.

"Therefore the commercial opportunity form Avacta is determined by supply capacity and not demand"

Lovely sentence mark 2
3/11
Yes they talk about self testing but until that is available (post field studies etc), business can be encouraged to take up the strain. Such things as tax credits etc come to mind, meaning a shoot for such a number, starts when professional use gets the green light.
4/11
Now notice that the "OEMS deals have the potential to expand the commercial opportunity for Avacta," is stated under the "addressing the very significant. . . opportunity in the UK first" umbrella. . .

So stand by your beds on that one.
5/11
The UK-RTC team version 2.10, that is now forming under AVCT, is stated as being capable of 10s of millions but to really grasp the opportunity, others need to take up the strain.

This has already begun on the Affimer production side of things because...
6/11
...Dr Smith talks about "also putting in place very large scale contract manufacturing partners"

"UK based. . .that will allow us to scale that up to very large volumes, which"

(and this is the truly mind blowing bit)
7/11
"if we get up to that 120m per month or even higher numbers, by accessing other markets around the world, that will require some 3rd party contract manufacturing."

So the 120m fig, isn't being presented as total market of which AVCT would like to capture a healthy part of,
8/11
it is being presented at the market AVCT, are soley focused on creating for themselves.

Rocket anyone?

On the very next slide, he talks about the existing partners being able to achieve "several millions" per month and "significant upscaling" required to meet the demand
9/11
But it speaks to "the requirement to put in capacity overseas. . .to meet that demand"

"will put through all the manufacturing we possibly can in the UK"

BUT
"we are very actively in discussions with manufacturers overseas. . .SE Asia."

What that clearly says to me,
10/11
is two things.

1. The existing partners have a carrot/stick scenario going on here. Yes they have other commitments but do they really have the sort of number involved, that AVCT is now talking about?

2. If there are other partners with capacity exist in the UK,
11/11
then a deal is going to get done. So #ODX very much in the frame and a matter of time in my view until they are on board.

All of which leaves me with just 1 question.

How does Dr Smith stays so cool, whilst delivering such a massive message to the market?

Big respect.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Oct 7
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/
The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/
The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.

That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.

They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets

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