Payrolls up 661k, U3 down to 7.9%
People on temporary layoff down by 1.5 million to 4.6 million, permanent job loss unemployment up by 345k to 3.8 million
Unemployment may have dropped, but not for the good reasons!

LFPR down by 0.3 points, EPOP essentially flat
Some of the slowdown in payrolls was from decline in government employment.

But private sector payrolls slowed as well. Down to 877k added in Sept from 1.02 million in August
The reverse radical recovery continues.

The hit to payrolls is still larger than the worst of the Great Recession, when they were 6% below pre-recession levels. Image
Prime-age employment rate declined in September. Another sign that while the unemployment rate dropped the rate of getting a job slowed. Image
Another fall in the LFPR for prime-age women! Image
More permanent forms of jobless ticked up in September. ImageImage
Employment in leisure & hospitality is still 23% below pre-pandemic levels. Image
The hit to employment remains largest in low average-wage industries . . . Image
And progress is slowing across all wage tiers Image
Unemployment declined, but more and more of the unemployed people are there for longer. Image
Employment rates still depressed across race & gender Image
Industries that rely on large crowds are, unsurprisingly, feeling the worst pain when it comes to employment. Image
Not only did the pace of job gains slow down, but job loss rose as well. Not great!

The massive churn in the labor market continues Image
This report is massively concerning. We are not where we need to be, nor are we moving fast enough in the right direction as we head into fall.

Full commentary here: hiringlab.org/2020/10/02/sep…

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More from @nick_bunker

6 Oct
#JOLTS August 2020 Edition:

Job openings edged down slightly! At 6.5 million

Layoffs and discharges down
Not only are layoffs and discharges down, they are at a series low!
Job openings are still well below pre-pandemic levels Image
Read 8 tweets
4 Sep
Wow, big drop in unemployment rate to 8.4%.

And that was for good reasons as LFPR went up.

EPOP up by 1.4 percentage points!
Private-sector payrolls up by 1 million in August, had risen by 1.5 million in July, 4.7 in June. A continued deceleration
The slowdown in payroll gains is very clear for leisure and hospitality.

+174k in August, from +621 in July, and just under 2 million in June.
Read 11 tweets
7 Aug
Payrolls up by 1.8 million. Unemployment down to 10.2%.
In other words, despite the huge range, numbers came in right at expectations.

1.8 million is a lot of jobs, but that's still a clear slowdown in job gains.
Labor force participation is essentially flat, but EPOP is up by 0.5 points to 55.1%.
Read 13 tweets
6 Jun
Folks, it's not a very good "conspiracy" if adding the misclassified data makes the decline look *BETTER*
Please, PLEASE, don't talk about this issue without putting in context.

The issue has been in the past 3 reports.
Eye on the ball, folks:

* the unemployment rate is in the double digits.

* payrolls are still 13% below February levels.
Read 4 tweets
5 Jun
WOW! Payrolls up by 2.5 million and the unemployment rate is DOWN to 13.3%
And that drop in the unemployment rate wasn't for the "bad" reason. Labor force participation actually went up
Still a measurement issue though: Unemployment rate would have been about 3 point higher if people "employed but absent" were classified correctly
Read 15 tweets
4 Oct 19
The slowdown is still here.

Unemployment rate drops to 3.5%, but payrolls miss with the private sector adding only 114k jobs in Sept.

Average hourly earnings growth down to 2.9% YoY.
Employment growth in the goods-producing sector continues to decline, but service-sector growth holding steady.
Another pick up in wage growth hasn't shown up.

Wage growth dropped for all workers, but essentially held steady for production & non-supervisory workers.
Read 12 tweets

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