#JOLTS August 2020 Edition:

Job openings edged down slightly! At 6.5 million

Layoffs and discharges down
Not only are layoffs and discharges down, they are at a series low!
Job openings are still well below pre-pandemic levels
About 2 unemployed people per job opening, but that ratio is lower if you look only at core unemployment: ~ 1.5 per opening
But the ratios for more enduring forms of joblessness ticked up in August
With the sideways move in job openings, the (adjusted) Beveridge Curve looks more stable.
In other words: not sign here of a rise in structural unemployment!
The layoffs and discharges rate for arts, entertainment, and recreation fell by more than half! From 5.1% to 2.5%

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More from @nick_bunker

2 Oct
Payrolls up 661k, U3 down to 7.9%
People on temporary layoff down by 1.5 million to 4.6 million, permanent job loss unemployment up by 345k to 3.8 million
Unemployment may have dropped, but not for the good reasons!

LFPR down by 0.3 points, EPOP essentially flat
Read 16 tweets
4 Sep
Wow, big drop in unemployment rate to 8.4%.

And that was for good reasons as LFPR went up.

EPOP up by 1.4 percentage points!
Private-sector payrolls up by 1 million in August, had risen by 1.5 million in July, 4.7 in June. A continued deceleration
The slowdown in payroll gains is very clear for leisure and hospitality.

+174k in August, from +621 in July, and just under 2 million in June.
Read 11 tweets
7 Aug
Payrolls up by 1.8 million. Unemployment down to 10.2%.
In other words, despite the huge range, numbers came in right at expectations.

1.8 million is a lot of jobs, but that's still a clear slowdown in job gains.
Labor force participation is essentially flat, but EPOP is up by 0.5 points to 55.1%.
Read 13 tweets
6 Jun
Folks, it's not a very good "conspiracy" if adding the misclassified data makes the decline look *BETTER*
Please, PLEASE, don't talk about this issue without putting in context.

The issue has been in the past 3 reports.
Eye on the ball, folks:

* the unemployment rate is in the double digits.

* payrolls are still 13% below February levels.
Read 4 tweets
5 Jun
WOW! Payrolls up by 2.5 million and the unemployment rate is DOWN to 13.3%
And that drop in the unemployment rate wasn't for the "bad" reason. Labor force participation actually went up
Still a measurement issue though: Unemployment rate would have been about 3 point higher if people "employed but absent" were classified correctly
Read 15 tweets
4 Oct 19
The slowdown is still here.

Unemployment rate drops to 3.5%, but payrolls miss with the private sector adding only 114k jobs in Sept.

Average hourly earnings growth down to 2.9% YoY.
Employment growth in the goods-producing sector continues to decline, but service-sector growth holding steady.
Another pick up in wage growth hasn't shown up.

Wage growth dropped for all workers, but essentially held steady for production & non-supervisory workers.
Read 12 tweets

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