1/ Some insights from senior EU official briefing after the #euco: if you read the entire statement #Turkish foreign ministry statement (official read it very carefully) it’s actually positive. There’s a sense that Turkey is willing to engage. Then the usual about all options etc
2/ Official appeared fully convinced that EU/Turkey relations won’t be normalised unless if the Cyprus issue is resolved. Said that a UN initiative is coming with considerable urgency after the election in the North. The EU will push in this direction.
3/ According to the official, no one wins everything in a negotiation and has the sense that Greece at least is fully aware of this. For example, the ICJ won’t give Greece everything that it wants and yet Greece is willing to go there.
4/ It’s clear that the official didn’t share the view of 🇨🇾 that the issue of hydrocarbon revenue has been resolved. The Cyprus dispute must be revolved - full stop
4/ The final text of the conclusions was much better for 🇨🇾 than the initial draft, so we can say that it fought well. But my sense was that a deliberately very dovish first draft was presented, so that the final outcome wouldn’t be too hawkish on Turkey.
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A key clause from the draft legal text of the latest package of sanctions. The EU is seeking to go beyond an import ban on Russian oil by targeting Moscow’s ability to sell *anywhere in the world*.
So basically vessels owned, chartered, operated or *otherwise controlled* by EU nationals & companies, *no matter if they carry an EU flag or not,* can't transport oil originating in Russia between places *anywhere in the world*. All services, including *insurance*, also banned
So, for example, a shipping tycoon with a Greek passport, no matter what flag his/her vessels carry, can't transport Russian oil between any countries anywhere, not just in Europe. Insurance provisions also banned. Our story on this: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Russia was forced to impose capital controls, as the unprecedented measures triggered a run on 🏦 and created a "structural liquidity deficit".
Still, the country's central bank clarified that external debt will continue to be serviced: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A mass exodus of investors has started, as fund managers restrict access to Russian assets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Now European stocks and U.S futures pare losses, they 're down less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Russia's stock market is closed and the country is facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Obviously some European companies are suffering, including banks (Raiffeisen), automakers, airlines, big oil (BP!), and luxury. But overall, while Russia is facing existential market stress, things in Europe seem to be under control. For now
If the standoff continues of course, there will be lasting detrimental consequences for all. There's no precedent of an economy so big & so central to the functioning of global supply chains (energy, commodities, food) being completely marginalized and North-Koreanized
European stocks rebound today, and Russian stocks trim some of yesterday's losses.
Worth reading this column by @johnauthers on why markets are saying that Putin will get what he wants (small spoiler: see carve-outs in sanctions) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Υπάρχει σοβαρό πρόβλημα με το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό. Χθες, στη συνεδρίαση της Επιτροπής Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων, έγινε περιγραφή της κατάστασης με δραματικούς τόνους. Ελλάδα και Κύπρος (όπως και οι άλλες χώρες του Νότου) θα δεχθούν πλήγμα σε τρία μέτωπα:
Παρένθεση - η Επιτροπή Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων στις Βρυξέλλες (COREPER) είναι το επίπεδο όπου τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ λαμβάνουν το 98% των συλλογικών αποφάσεων τους. Οι υπουργοί *συνήθως* βάζουν μία τζίφρα σε αποφάσεις & κείμενα που έχουν ήδη συμφωνηθεί στο COREPER. Εξ ου και..
... ο Μόνιμος Αντιπρόσωπος κάθε κ-μ είναι η πιο σημαντική θέση της διοίκησης, πιο σημαντική από υπουργού. Τα κ-μ είναι ο βασικός νομοθέτης στην ΕΕ (σαν άνω Βουλή). Και οι αποφάσεις τους λαμβάνονται μέσω του COREPER. Κλείνει η παρένθεση. Χθες λοιπόν...