Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Oct 3, 2020 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1) As the daily number of #COVID19 infections crossed the thousand-case threshold in Quebec on Friday — the highest since the peak of the first wave — it’s clear the province is now fighting a multi-front war on the #pandemic. In this thread, I will elaborate on those fronts.
2) Let’s start with a surge in #COVID19 outbreaks in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) and seniors’ residences (RPAs) across the province. Clusters have been identified in more than 30 such facilities, with two dozen infections confirmed in the past 24 hours among the elderly.
3) The hardest-hit nursing homes are in Chaudière-Appalaches, the Capitale-Nationale, Outaouais and the Gaspé — regions largely spared during the #pandemic’s first wave. Eldercare centres have also been affected in the Eastern Townships, the Laurentians, Laval and Montreal.
4) The next front in this war are the province’s schools. The number of classes shuttered due to #COVID19 rose to 674 Thursday from 631 day before. What’s more, another 80 students and 24 school employees tested positive for the #coronavirus just on Oct. 1. See the chart below.
5) Public health authorities didn’t have to contend with outbreaks in both CHSLDs and schools during the first wave. Businesses were locked down until mid-May, but clusters of cases are now erupting mostly in the workplace, yet another front in this war.
6) Meanwhile, health resources are spread thin. More than 800 nurses have quit Montreal’s hospitals. Surgeons are tackling a backlog of more than 92,000 operations. Some cancer patients are facing delays in treatment. ER overcrowding is now a Quebec-wide problem. (See below).
7) Doctors are treating more #COVID19 patients than in recent weeks, with a major outbreak hitting a Quebec City cardiac hospital. In the past seven days, the province has recorded a net increase of 103 hospitalizations. Deaths are on the upswing, too: seven were declared Friday.
8) Contact tracing has become a monumental task for exhausted public-health investigators. The province is carrying out more than double the number of daily #COVID19 screening tests than during the first wave. Yet this is just the start of the second wave.
9) As for Montreal, long the epicenter of the #pandemic, #COVID19 is not only flaring up in the centre of the city, but in the north end, the east end, and now on the West Island, according to the chart below. Transmission is occurring mostly at the community level.
10) The #pandemic’s speed in Montreal is dizzying. On Sept. 11, the metropolis observed a rolling seven-day average of 25.3 cases per million population. On Friday, just three weeks later, that rate soared to 147.02 cases per million. See the chart below.
11) Montreal added one #COVID19 fatality to a death toll that's climbed to 3,482. Perhaps for all these reasons, Premier François Legault said he will announce new restrictions for schools and sports on Monday. End of thread. Please practice #SocialDistancing and wear a mask.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Nov 30
1) Author @GadSaad, who has taken an unpaid leave from Concordia University, has just written this commentary in the New York Post, headlined: "How Montreal became the antisemitism capital of North America." Here are my thoughts on this topic.

nypost.com/2024/11/30/opi…
2) Obviously, it's debatable as to whether Montreal is indeed the antisemitism capital of the continent. As many Jews are painfully aware, antisemitism sadly exists everywhere. But recent events in Montreal have caused many Jews here to feel unsafe.
montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) A friend just sent this text: "Recently, several of my Jewish friends - lifelong Montrealers - have made the difficult decision to leave the city. They’re not leaving for better opportunities or a change of scenery, but because they and their children no longer feel safe...+"
Read 6 tweets
Aug 16
1) BREAKING: The lengthy #COVID19 summer wave is continuing unabated in Quebec, along with other parts of North America and even around the world. Here in Quebec, it has been associated directly and indirectly with 1,100 hospitalizations for the past 12 days in a row. Image
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, the #COVID testing positivity rate in Quebec was 20.9 per cent as of Aug. 11, the most recent date available. The trend line suggests the positivity rate has yet to peak. Image
3) Although nowhere near as fatal as it was back in 2020 (when vaccination was unavailable), #COVID this year has nonetheless been linked to 675 deaths, 38.7 per cent of which have occurred in octogenarians. But 30 Quebecers in their 50s have also died from #COVID in 2023-2024. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets

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